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Prédiction du pronostic des patients atteints de muscoviscidose

Abstract : Cystic Fibrosis is unfortunately an incurable inherited disorder. Despite real progress in research, it is essential to always have a better understanding of the disease in order to provide suitable treatments to patients. Current treatments mostly aim to reduce the disease symptoms without curing it. Lung transplantation is proposed to cystic fibrosis patients with terminal respiratory failure with the aim of improving life expectancy and quality of life. However, criteria for referring patients for lung transplantation still vary widely among transplant centers. It is necessary to guide clinicians in identifying in a good way patients requiring an evaluation for lung transplantation. It is thus important to clearly identify prognostic factors related to lung transplantation and to predict in a good way the occurrence of this event in patients with cystic fibrosis. The aim of this work was to develop prognostic tools to assist clinicians in the evaluation of different therapeutic options related to lung transplantation. First, we reevaluated prognostic factors of lung transplantation or death in adult with cystic fibrosis. indeed, therapeutic progress in patients with cystic fibrosis has resulted in improved prognosis over the past decades. We identified prognostic factors related to the current state of research in the cystic fibrosis field. We further developed a joint model with latent classes which provided dynamic predictions for lung transplantation or death. This model identified three profile of the evolution of the disease and was able to update the risk of lung transplantation or death taking into account the evolution of the longitudinal marker FEV1 which describes the lung function. These prognostic models were developed using the French cystic fibrosis registry and provided good predictive accuracies in terms of discrimination and calibration.
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Submitted on : Wednesday, May 2, 2018 - 7:05:05 PM
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  • HAL Id : tel-01783970, version 1



Dorette Lionelle Nkam Beriye. Prédiction du pronostic des patients atteints de muscoviscidose. Médecine humaine et pathologie. Conservatoire national des arts et metiers - CNAM, 2017. Français. ⟨NNT : 2017CNAM1162⟩. ⟨tel-01783970⟩



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