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Longs épisodes secs hivernaux dans le bassin méditerranéen et conditions atmosphériques associées : variabilité contemporaine et future (1957-2100)

Abstract : In the context of climate change, as reflected by a dryer Mediterraneanbasin, this thesis focused on the study of the contemporary and future variability(1957-2100) of the wintertime (September to April) very long dryspells events (called VLDSe) in the Mediterranean basin. An original methodologywas developed in this thesis in order to define VLDSe as singularclimatic events, characterized by location, duration and spatial extent criteria.76 VLDSe were detected in the Mediterranean basin on the contemporaryperiod (1957-2013). These events are divided into 4 main geographicalpatterns: North-East, West, Scattered Localized and South-East. North-East and West configurations are associated with anticyclonic conditionslocated approximately 1 000 km northwestern to the areas affected by theVLDSe, favoring a clear sky and no precipitations. The Scattered Localizedand South-East configurations are special: the first one is characterized asa residual class grouping VLDSe with small spatial extent and distributedthroughout the entire basin, and the second one is characterized by seasonalVLDSe which are the continuation of the dry summer observed in the eastof the Mediterranean basin.Euro-Atlantic weather regimes have some control on the VLDSe. Thepositive phase of the north-atlantic oscillation regime (NAO+) is the onlyone that is clearly favorable to the development of VLDSe on almost the entirebasin. The east-atlantic regime (EA) does not show any control on theVLDSe, and the atlantic ridge (AR) and the negative phase of the northatlanticoscillation (NAO-) regimes are generally detrimental to VLDSe. However,some VLDSe can sometimes be associated with AR, EA and NAOregimes.This requires these three weather regimes to be associated withslightly higher atmospheric pressure northwest of the areas impacted bythe VLDSe, compared to their respective climatology. Long duration of theAR, EA and NAO+ regimes, which are coupled with sustained atmosphericstability, are preferentially associated with VLDSe, in contrast to the shortduration. Conversely, the long duration of the NAO- regime, reinforcingthe low atmospheric pressure on Europe and the Mediterranean basin, areweakly associated with VLDSe.Although the two climate models ALADIN52 and LMDZ4-NEMOMED8 differ in several respects, they agree in that VLDSe should be longer by 2100,especially in the RCP8.5 trajectory. A multi-model analysis with 12 CMIP5simulations shows that wintertime sea-level pressure tends to increase in theAtlantic Ocean, off the French coast and in the central the Mediterraneanbasin for the RCP8.5 trajectory. Conversely, the frequency and duration ofthe 4 weather regimes do not show significant trends until the end of the21st century.Finally, a study is carried out to assess the impact of VLDSe on agriculturalproduction in Spain. The number of VLDSe days has a larger impactson the yields of barley, wheat and oats (winter species and cultivatedthrough rainfed agriculture) than the simple ratio of dry days or seasonalrainfall amounts in Spain. A two-season case study, based on seasons withcomparable rainfall amounts, shows that in addition to yields, a VLDSecauses a significant decrease in soil moisture and in the Ebro River flow.
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Florian Raymond. Longs épisodes secs hivernaux dans le bassin méditerranéen et conditions atmosphériques associées : variabilité contemporaine et future (1957-2100). Climatologie. Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté, 2017. Français. ⟨NNT : 2017UBFCK017⟩. ⟨tel-01780797⟩

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