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L’impact de la spécialisation sur la stabilité économique : le cas des pays émergents.

Abstract : The fast growth of the world trade during the last two decades was characterized by an improved performance as well as an economic instability of emerging countries. According to the literature, the technological specialization is often associated with growth, competitiveness and economic stability. Recognizing this, we analyze the impact of the specialization of emerging countries on their growth and on their economic stability and we estimate the impact of the competitiveness (itself related to specialization) of these countries on their export performance.In a first chapter, we outline the contours of the notion of specialization according to the various theories.Having determined as objectively as possible a list of emerging countries referring to the most criteria used in the literature and having measured the degree of specialization of these countries, we study the map of the technological specialization in emerging countries over the 1995-2014 period. According to this cartography, we notice a bad orientation of their specialization. These countries are essentially characterized by a strong specialization in Labour-intensive and resource-intensive manufactures and low-tech items that are low value-added specialization. The specializing in high technology is largely driven by imports. Exports are mainly drawn by assembly activities.In the second chapter, we first assess the impact of technological specializations of emerging countries on their economic growth and we compare the results with those found in the developed and developing countries. We find that different types of specialization have a positive impact on the growth of emerging countries. But this positive impact cannot hide the misdirection of this specialization (result of Chapter 1).Second, we study the impact of competitiveness (price- and non-price competitiveness) of emerging countries on the development of their exports. We note that the impact of price-competitiveness on the evolution of the exports of the countries in our sample depends on the indicator used. It is negative when we use the exchange rate and positive when we use productivity.We also find that the impact of the structural competitiveness, measured by the expenses in the high technology and by the specialization in the high technology, is positive. It can be explained by the more and more increasing world demand in the high-technology products.In the last chapter, we focus on the relationship between specialization and economic stability and we compare this relationship with that observed in developed countries. We find that countries whose specialization is based on natural resources are more unstable and that the impact of specialization in high technology depends on the country's level of development. The impact is negative for developed countries and positive for emerging countries. This difference in the impact may be due to the assembling policy used by most emerging countries and which leads to import of high-tech products (HT) as parts and components.
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Submitted on : Friday, April 6, 2018 - 5:17:08 PM
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Ons Abbes. L’impact de la spécialisation sur la stabilité économique : le cas des pays émergents.. Economies et finances. Université Paris-Est; Université de Tunis El Manar, 2017. Français. ⟨NNT : 2017PESC0001⟩. ⟨tel-01760846⟩



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