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Recherche d’indices de variabilité climatique dans des séries hydroclmatiques au Maroc : identification, positionnement temporel, tendances et liens avec les fluctuations climatiques : cas des grands bassins de la Moulouya, du Sebou et du Tensift

Abstract : This work is to characterize the temporal and spatial variability of hydroclimatic time series (rainfall, flow) at three large basins in Morocco; (basins of the Sebou and Moulouya Tensift) and look links between the hydrologic variability and climate fluctuation materialized by various climate indices, NAO, SOI, WMOI. The approach to study is based on statistical analysis of time series, related to time and space dimensions.The great watershed of continental scale as Tensift, Sebou and Moulouya in Mediterranean climate under oceanic influence, integrate over large areas the hydrological response to climate and environmental changes (climate fluctuations, precipitation, flows) not only to large spatial and temporal scales, but also to changes in the physical environment anthropogenic (land use changes, developments ...), which sometimes makes difficult to identify the links between hydrological variability and climate variability. The main objective of this work is to determine and quantify the relationships between hydrological variability and climate fluctuations (regionalised precipitation, climate change indexes) across each studied basin and its main sub-basins, via using spectral analysis methods adapted to the study of non-stationary processes (continuous wavelet analysis, coherence analysis wavelet). Many modes of variability are identified from the station analysis (rainfall and flow rates), the annual cycle to 16-22 years, this analysis will be complemented by a grid analysis, the data come from a (SIEREM) file covering the period from 1940 to 1999, which will allow a better understanding of the spatial variability of signals set highlighted. Which is identified frequencies the 1 year 8-16 years, distinguished different time periods at each basin, three main discontinuities identified in 1970, 1980 and 2000. The contribution of climatic indices is important enough it is between 55% and 80%.
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Zineb Zamrane. Recherche d’indices de variabilité climatique dans des séries hydroclmatiques au Maroc : identification, positionnement temporel, tendances et liens avec les fluctuations climatiques : cas des grands bassins de la Moulouya, du Sebou et du Tensift. Sciences de la Terre. Université Montpellier, 2016. Français. ⟨NNT : 2016MONTT181⟩. ⟨tel-01690063⟩

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