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Prédiction de la perte du greffon chez les jeunes patients transplantés rénaux

Abstract : Particular attention should be paid to young patients transplanted from the kidney, which have priority in France in the assignment of renal graft. The objectives of this thesis were 1) to study the dynamics of the hazard of graft failure by current age after transplantation in young people; 2) to carry out a systematic review of prediction models for renal graft failure at all ages; and (3) to develop and validate a prediction model for this young population. To achieve Objectives 1 and 3, we used data from the French national registries REIN and CRISTAL, which included all pediatric renal transplant patients. For Objective 1, a two-stage statistical method revealed an increase in the hazard of graft failure during adolescence. For Objective 2, a systematic review of articles published between 2005 and 2015 showed that no predictive tool for graft failure has been specifically proposed for pediatric patients, as well as no dynamic predictive model for any age. For Objective 3, we developed and validated using internal cross-validation a dynamic prediction model of graft failure for young transplanted patients, using a joint model with shared random effects. This model included standard baseline predictors at the 90th day after transplantation (characteristics of the recipient (sex, age at transplantation, pretrasplant dialysis duration, primary renal disease, nadir of eGFR at J90), the donor (age and type), and transplantation (duration of cold ischemia, number of HLA incompatibilities, donor/recipient cytomegalovirus (CMV) serology status). The model also included the trajectory of GFR estimated after transplantation, assuming that the hazard of graft failure depended on both the current value of eGFR and its current slope. Our results indicate that this model had good predictive performances (AUC at 5 years ranging from 0.75 to 0.86 according to the time at prediction after transplantation), which were much better than the standard Cox model accounting for baseline predictors only (5-year AUC variant from 0.56 to 0.62). This model which allows the prediction of graft failure to be updated at each clinical visit after transplantation based on all previous observed values of eGFR, should be validated on populations other than the French population. We believe that such a tool could ultimately be useful in the clinical follow-up of young kidney transplanted patients.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, January 16, 2018 - 3:10:07 PM
Last modification on : Thursday, September 3, 2020 - 5:23:06 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Monday, May 7, 2018 - 12:32:10 PM


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  • HAL Id : tel-01685558, version 1



Remi Kabore. Prédiction de la perte du greffon chez les jeunes patients transplantés rénaux. Médecine humaine et pathologie. Université de Bordeaux, 2017. Français. ⟨NNT : 2017BORD0702⟩. ⟨tel-01685558⟩



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