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Vulnérabilité, résilience et effets cascade entre réseaux techniques : apports de la modélisation systémique et spatiale pour la planification et la gestion de crise au profit des opérateurs de réseau et de la sécurité civile

Abstract : Crisis spread spatially and temporally inside the society through dependency links between physical critical networks: these phenomena are called cascading effects. After exploring cascading effects linked to the intervention of the fire brigade, this PhD thesis compares two modelling techniques: graph oriented database incorporating static impacts zones, and coupling of simulators in order to define evolutionary impacts zones – a method for applying this latest approach is proposed. It suggests also improving the automatic assessment of consequences per crisis scenario, in modelling the variation of population density on a territory. The vulnerability of each infrastructure contributes to cascading effects but the system resilience helps to stop them. This work proposes a global method for assessing vulnerability and resilience of physical critical networks (PCN). It has been applied first on detailed scenarios proposed by three different water utility companies. This work discusses then the extension of this approach to others PCNs. These results aim at helping the civil safety institutions to have a global view of PCNs vulnerability and resilience strategies proposed by utility companies. They aim also to help utility companies to have indicators for assessing and following their weak and strength facing threats, and to better identify axes of improvement.
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Amélie Grangeat. Vulnérabilité, résilience et effets cascade entre réseaux techniques : apports de la modélisation systémique et spatiale pour la planification et la gestion de crise au profit des opérateurs de réseau et de la sécurité civile. Autre. Université de Lyon, 2016. Français. ⟨NNT : 2016LYSEM029⟩. ⟨tel-01665159⟩

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