Approche intégrée d’aide à la décision basée sur la propagation de l’imperfection de l’information – application à l’efficacité des mesures de protection torrentielle

Abstract : Many torrential protective check dams have been built in French mountainous areas since the 19th century. They aim to reduce risk in torrential watersheds. Analysis of their effectiveness is needed to assess residual risk and to choose the best maintenance strategy in a context of reduced budgets. Chapter I introduces main issues due both to definition of effectiveness concept and also the several criteria and system scales that have to be assessed. Moreover, required expertise is based on imperfect information, provided by several sources with different reliability levels. To help such decisions, this thesis proposes to break down general assessment into several smaller decision-making problems. In chapter II, dependability analysis tools and Evidential Reasoning based-decision-aiding methods (ER-DAMs), using fuzzy sets and possibility theories, are chosen to help individual decisions. Chapters III to V then introduce new developments. Effectiveness concept is first defined. A multi-scale dependability analysis helps to describe each decision-making problem. ER-DAMs are then adapted to help effectiveness assessment at each system’s scale. Technical improvements are provided to these methods for a better knowledge representation and final decision. Improved methods are then associated. Finally, individual problems and associated methods are integrated in a generic methodology to help torrential protective measures’ effectiveness assessment at watershed scale. The last chapter VI focuses on discussion of integrative aspects and of ER-DAMs’ specific developments. It gives some elements to improve methods but also to help operational implementation of the generic methodology.
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Simon Carladous. Approche intégrée d’aide à la décision basée sur la propagation de l’imperfection de l’information – application à l’efficacité des mesures de protection torrentielle. Autre. Université de Lyon, 2017. Français. ⟨NNT : 2017LYSEM008⟩. ⟨tel-01665142⟩

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