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Les conséquences de l'élévation du niveau marin pour le recul du trait de côte

Abstract : To which extent does present day sea-level rise affect shoreline changes? This question remains largely open due to the lack of knowledge and data regarding coastal hydrosedimentary processes and relative sea-level changes (i.e., including vertical ground motions). This PhD Thesis first addresses the question of measuring relative sea-level changes using a combination of geodetic data, including satellite-radar interferometry and permanent GPS stations. Then, it examines the case of coasts that experienced sea-level changes significantly different from the global average over the last 50 years. In the case of atoll islands of French Polynesia, the available data illustrate the major role of southern, trade and cyclonic waves in controlling shoreline changes. For some sheltered coasts, waves are suspected to combine with sea-level rise to favour shoreline retreat. In the case of the European coastal database Eurosion, about 17 000 coastal observations are available and have been analysed using a Bayesian network. Here, part of the spatial variability of shoreline changes can be explained by the fact that Fennoscandian coasts are not only accreting, but also uplifting due to the post-glacial rebound. Overall, these results suggest that it is still too early to observe obvious effects of climate-induced sea-level rise. A probabilistic analysis of the coastal sedimentary equation shows that under common assumptions on hydrosedimentary processes, sea-level rise impacts for beaches should become observable during the second half of the 21st century, if the efforts to maintain climate warming below the 2 C threshold fail. Finally, this PhD thesis offers opportunities for stimulating future research in the field of mathematics applied to the question of climate change and sea-level rise impacts to coastal zones.
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Submitted on : Monday, December 11, 2017 - 10:36:25 PM
Last modification on : Friday, April 29, 2022 - 10:12:30 AM


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Gonéri Le Cozannet. Les conséquences de l'élévation du niveau marin pour le recul du trait de côte. Géographie. Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, 2016. Français. ⟨NNT : 2016PA01H036⟩. ⟨tel-01661291⟩



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