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Peste des petits ruminant en Afrique subsaharienne : modélisation et analyse des stratégies de vaccination dans un contexte de bien public mondial

Abstract : Peste des petits ruminants is a highly contagious animal disease. Widespread in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, it has a devastating effect on small ruminants. Small ruminants are essential to sustainable livelihood in developping countries, especially in rural communities. In western Africa, the disease incidence is higher because of the difficulty to control animals movements (transhumance, illegal trade, conflicted areas, etc.) and to settle adapted sanitary actions.A global strategy for the progressive control and the eradication of the disease has been developed by the OIE and FAO. It is based on mass vaccination, with vaccination protocols defined on empirical basis.After a vaccination campaign, the population dynamics is responsible for herd renewal, the proportion of protected individuals (post-vaccinal immunity rate) in the population is decreasing over time (entries of non-vaccinated animals and exits of vaccinated ones). The immunity rate decrease allows to assess to the efficiency of employed vaccination strategies in term of immunity coverage. From a given threshold, the immunity rate can stop the viral transmission. The population renewal has to be estimated carrefully because it varies from one farming system to another. The work described in this manuscript provides an optimization tool of vaccination strategy, supporting decision markers in the formulation of vaccination protocole achiving the best possible immunization coverage in a given socio-economical context.Using the demographic matrix model theory, we developed a seasonal model predicting the immunity rate dynamics in traditional small ruminants livestock of Western African during a vaccination program. We used this model to evaluate different vaccination protocols proposed for Sahelian arid and semi-arid areas, and Soudano-guinean sub-humid and humid areas. Model parameters were estimated from the available data and an exhaustive review of literature.Synthesising indicators of the protocoles efficiency were computed (length of protective immunity, average immunity rate, etc.) and compared.The work described in the manuscript broadly confirmed the protocols proposed by the OIE and FAO. Additionally, this work provides details for the various scenarios. Very high vaccination coverage (>80%) should be reached to protect the population during the whole program. In the Sahelian zone, herds should be vaccinated at the earliest possible from September to optimize the scope of vaccination. We also show that the males offtake increase due to Tabaski and the initial epidemiological situation poorly influences the immunity rate dynamics.Our tool is generic. I can be applied to any infectious disease which has a vaccine providing a lifelong immunity and for which the population dynamics is known. Nevertheless, it could be improved by implementing spatial analysis and disease dynamics.
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Pachka Hammami. Peste des petits ruminant en Afrique subsaharienne : modélisation et analyse des stratégies de vaccination dans un contexte de bien public mondial. Médecine vétérinaire et santé animale. Université Montpellier, 2016. Français. ⟨NNT : 2016MONTT136⟩. ⟨tel-01652120⟩

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