Prise en compte de l’hétérogénéité inobservée des exploitations agricoles dans la modélisation du changement structurel : illustration dans le cas de la France.

Abstract : Structural change in farming has long been the subject of considerable interest among agricultural economists and policy makers. To account for heterogeneity in farmers’ behaviours, a mixture Markov modelling framework is applied to analyse this process for the first time in agricultural economics. The performance of this approach is first investigated using a restrictive form of the model, and its general form is then applied to study the impact of some drivers of structural change, including agricultural policy measures. To identify channels through which interdependency between neighbouring farms arises in this process, the mixture modelling approach is applied to analyse both farm survival and farm growth. The main conclusions of this thesis are threefoldFirstly, accounting for the generally unobserved heterogeneity in the transition process of farms allows better representing structural change in farming and leads to more accurate predictions of farm-size distributions than the models usually used so far. Secondly, the impacts of the main drivers of structural change themselves depend on the specific unobservable farm types which are revealed by the model. Lastly, the mixture modelling approach enables identifying different unobserved relationships between neighbouring farms that contributes to the structural change observed at an aggregate or regional level.
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Legrand Dunold Fils Saint-Cyr. Prise en compte de l’hétérogénéité inobservée des exploitations agricoles dans la modélisation du changement structurel : illustration dans le cas de la France.. Economies et finances. Agrocampus Ouest, 2016. Français. ⟨NNT : 2016NSARE043⟩. ⟨tel-01649738⟩

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