Analyse et représentation des épisodes de caniculaires en zones urbaines denses : de la durée à la conception d'un indice de dangerosité

Abstract : The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) in its 4th report underlines that the European cities will be impacted by more frequent and more intense scorching episodes due to the climatic modifications taking place during the XXIth century. Peculiar climatic areas, significantly hotter than their surroundings, cities amplify the phenomenon of the urban heat island (UHI). In the example of Paris, the urban islands of heat can exceed by 8°C to 10°C the temperatures measured a few kilometers away. This effect is all the more fatal as heat wave periods become more and more regular (2003, 2006, 2010, 2015). The knowledge on the heat wave phenomenon requires to put in relation spatial and temporal data so as to define high-risk areas.To be able to simulate a heat wave, the SURFEX-TEB model, designed by Météo-France, and CNRS, was chosen. It allows to estimate the temperature in town from weather conditions of the highest atmospheres. These forecasts are particularly important in heat wave periods where temperature differences between cities and suburban areas can exceed 8°C. The heat wave risk, resulting from the UHI, is complex to both understand and represent.To characterize, understand and represent the heat wave by the means of the SURFEX-TEB model, we made a data fusion with measures realized during the 2015 heat wave in Paris. This assimilation highlights, for instance, the accumulation phenomena and the impact of the apartments configuration on the inside and outside temperatures. Our various configurations allowed to confirm the importance of taking into account the internal temperatures during heat waves periods.This research thus proposes a specific and technical perspective of the heat waves representation. Its objectives are a better representation of heat waves and a sharper estimation of their dangerousness according to the phenomenon duration, its intensity and the urban and human features. Maps describing the heat wave and its dangerousness are highlighted thanks to the elaboration of a public Web site.The results of this research rise an interrogation on the thresholds of heat wave. They underline the importance to introduce an internal threshold of heat wave and demonstrate the role of the urban configuration, particularly the types of house. This should contribute to better take into account the dangerousness of heat waves and to improve the mitigation of their effects
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Laura Pinson. Analyse et représentation des épisodes de caniculaires en zones urbaines denses : de la durée à la conception d'un indice de dangerosité. Géographie. Université Paris-Est, 2016. Français. ⟨NNT : 2016PESC1061⟩. ⟨tel-01540378⟩

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