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Les déterminants de la transformation productive soutenable dans le contexte des chaînes de valeur globales : une application aux pays en développement

Abstract : The analysis we present in this dissertation emerges from a confrontation of the recent literature on structural change and the literature on global value chains. Productive transformation is almost exclusively analysed through exports transformation. However, the international fragmentation of production makes this export-based approach hazardous. The potential gap between factor content of exports and countries’ factor endowments imply that exports modernization may only be an illusion. We address the complex and multidimensional nature of structural change given the current economic context and we examine innovative determinants of structural transformation. We develop the idea of a sustainable structural transformation that we describe through aggregate indicators. The analysis of the determinants through descriptive and econometric methods reveals risks of lock-in situations as well as risks of immiserising specialisation in the industrialization process, specifically in the textile and electronic sectors. We also find that defying factor endowments encourages diversification towards sophisticated exports. However this transformation is unsustainable especially when countries are major FDI recipients. We show that FDI positively influences factor content of exports while they have a negative impact on factor endowments. Thus, a productive transformation generated through FDI does not imply factor accumulation. Finally, export sophistication seems to rely more on FDI rather than on capabilities accumulation, meaning that the sustainability dimension is essential in an export-based approach of structural transformation.
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Pauline Lectard. Les déterminants de la transformation productive soutenable dans le contexte des chaînes de valeur globales : une application aux pays en développement. Economies et finances. Université de Bordeaux, 2016. Français. ⟨NNT : 2016BORD0353⟩. ⟨tel-01532207⟩

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