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Modélisation de la montée vers un état critique de la situation de basses eaux sous forçages naturel et anthropique en région méditerranéenne

Abstract : Water and life are unequally distributed. This hinders the development of societies, and leads to situations of tension, whoseintensity and frequency vary according to climatic conditions, population density and according therefore to demand. With theongoing climate change and the rising water requirements (the stock dedicated to the natural environment), the level of tensionis likely to rise, such as the frequency of very low water. The French Mediterranean territories are particularly concerned withthe fragility of water resources during summertime (a little watered season, a strong tourist appeal, etc.). In addition, everymodification in the climate regime (the decreasing of rainfall inputs, etc.) would necessarily affect more the small catchmentwith very local resources, such as rivers and living areas which don’t benefit from the influence of major rivers (Rhone, Durance,etc.).The reflection on water scarcity can therefore be focused on the structure of such a risk (sequence of steps, the impact of onefactor on the others, etc.), and on the conditions that make the system reach an undesirable situation.The approach adopted here suggests to decline this particular approach to low water. Three objectives are here stated: (1) identifyand compile, within a specific database, the essential information to understand the phenomenon; (2) characterize the meanstate of low water from local situations and through robust statistical descriptors; (3) determine the terms of its evolution tocritical states.The whole work leads first to the development of a probabilistic modeling, which is designed to be deployed in different spatialscales and in dfferent times. The reflection is then extended to the methodological and technical arrangements that would allowthe development of analytical indicators and synthetic indexes for assessing the resource level of tension.The approach finally results in simple and intuitive digital tools, that can be mobilized for operational purposes such asdecision-making support for the implementation of anticipatory measures and regulation, and that can transferable to anyMediterranean territory.
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Submitted on : Thursday, June 1, 2017 - 5:55:12 PM
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  • HAL Id : tel-01531552, version 1

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Ingrid Canovas. Modélisation de la montée vers un état critique de la situation de basses eaux sous forçages naturel et anthropique en région méditerranéenne. Etudes de l'environnement. Université d'Avignon, 2016. Français. ⟨NNT : 2016AVIG1166⟩. ⟨tel-01531552⟩

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