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Le vieillissement démographique en Méditerranée : convergences territoriales et spatiales

Abstract : The demographic transition has upset and still upsets population balances worldwide. If population growth has been in the crosshairs of demographers throughout the second half of the twentieth century, ageing is an equally significant consequence of this change in demography. Its social and economic impacts on societies will be certainly one of the major challenges in the XXI century. Nevertheless, studies, particularly demographic and geoprospective are not so many. In order to understand the observed changes, and to position the study at the level of sub-national territories, it seems appropriate to look beyond national borders. Assuming a convergence of ageing territories, we propose to study the future of Mediterranean societies’ ageing in its dynamic dimension. The Mediterranean area is an interesting laboratory for the study of ageing : we found on its shores a great plurality of situations. On the one hand, old regions which have completed their transition, on the other hand, regions that come to engage in the demographic transition and are still very young, but could quickly catch up with other regions. Issues in this study exceeded its thematic framework. To reach our goal, several challenges had to be overcome regarding the collection of data, their harmonization, their projection and analysis. For the whole Mediterranean area, we have collected and harmonized geo-demographic data to sub-national scales from many disparate sources. They were then used to establish future scenarios and projections for the next 50 years. Finally, we had to adapt methods from other disciplines (especially econometrics) to establish convergence of measures. We even propose news methods to answer our questions. The Ph.D. highlights the diversity of convergence proccess involved in the ageing populations of the Mediterranean. Territorial convergence and spatial convergence are taking part in the approximation of the regions’ characteristics in terms of ageing. All the different scenarios analyzed describe future that highlight the global convergence of ageing but also remind that the observed heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of the phenomenon should last a long time and could strengthen locally.
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Contributor : Yoann Doignon Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Sunday, February 19, 2017 - 12:26:05 AM
Last modification on : Wednesday, November 3, 2021 - 4:02:43 AM
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  • HAL Id : tel-01471133, version 1


Yoann Doignon. Le vieillissement démographique en Méditerranée : convergences territoriales et spatiales. Géographie. Aix-Marseille Université, 2016. Français. ⟨tel-01471133⟩



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