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Contribution to risk analysis related to the transport of hazardous materials by agent-based simulation

Hassan Kanj 1
1 G-SCOP_GCSP [2016-2019] - Gestion et Conduite des Systèmes de Production [2016-2019]
G-SCOP - Laboratoire des sciences pour la conception, l'optimisation et la production
Abstract : Dangerous Goods Transport (DGT) represents a source of danger to the crossed areas. This danger can produce serious consequences for the environment, property or human beings. Due to the importance of these products (gasoline, first material, medicines) in everyday life and the increasing demand on these products, it is important to analyze and assess the level of risk related to DGT in order to minimize it. This risk depends on the followed route, the quantity of transported products, the time of day, the weather conditions and the population density of crossed areas. It is characterized by the targets that are exposed for a given time, and by the risk level that varies with time and space.The purpose of this thesis is to evaluate and assess the risk level related to an accident and especially risk related to DGT. Several methods to calculate the risk level, related to DGT, have been proposed in the literature. In most of these methods, the temporal aspect has not been taken explicitly into account in spite of its importance. Indeed, the volume of traffic, the building occupancy rates or weather conditions could greatly change depending on the time of day.The first part of this thesis summarizes the state of the art on risk analysis. Next, we present two approaches for assessing risk related to DGT systems: the former serves to evaluate the risk level of an accident and it is based on Monte Carlo Simulation, while the latter aims at assessing the risk level along a trajectory.The second part focuses on the temporal aspect and due to the complexity of our system (several entities, distributed systems, entities with multiple levels of abstraction, etc.), we are turned to a multi-agent simulation approach and we define a meta-model agent with a risk facet, a generic facet. This facet allows us to represent the risk analysis and failure propagation in an agent model.The third part of this thesis illustrates a proposed approach to assess the risk level related to DGT. Firstly, we propose formulas to assess the accident frequency and severity. Then, we present the implementation of both simulation approaches proposed in the first part using the agent based model proposed in the second part. Secondly, as decision-making is affected by the economic and temporal aspects (cost of shipping and travel time), we are facing a multi-criteria decision making problem (MCDM). In addition, to take into account the fact that several parameters used in risk analysis are uncertain, we have used fuzzy numbers. Next, we have proposed an approach, which integrates MCDM methods with fuzzy numbers, to identify the best route for DGT among a set of alternatives. The purpose of this approach is to provide decision support for decision makers such as, public authorities and emergency services in case of emergency.A simulation tool is developed in Eclipse, which allows us to analyze the level of risk and realizes maps that show the instantaneous position of the truck with the impacted areas in the case of accident. This work is a part of the GEOTRANS-MD project.
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Hassan Kanj. Contribution to risk analysis related to the transport of hazardous materials by agent-based simulation. Automatic. Université Grenoble Alpes, 2016. English. ⟨NNT : 2016GREAT060⟩. ⟨tel-01447765⟩

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