Modélisation stochastique des marchés financiers et optimisation de portefeuille

Maxime Bonelli 1
1 TOSCA - TO Simulate and CAlibrate stochastic models
CRISAM - Inria Sophia Antipolis - Méditerranée , IECL - Institut Élie Cartan de Lorraine : UMR7502
Abstract : This PhD thesis presents three independent contributions. The first part is concentrated on the modeling of the conditional mean of stock market returns: the expected market return. The latter is often modeled as an AR(1) process. However, empirical studies have found that during bad times return predictability is higher. Given that the AR(1) model excludes by construction this property, we propose to use instead a CIR model. The implications of this specification are studied within a flexible Bayesian state-space model. The second part is dedicated to the modeling of stocks volatility and trading volume. The empirical relationship between these two quantities has been justified by the Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis (MDH). However, this framework notably fails to capture the obvious persistence in stock variance, unlike GARCH specifications. We propose a two-factor model of volatility combining both approaches, in order to disentangle short-run from long-run volatility variations. The model reveals several important regularities on the volume-volatility relationship. The third part of the thesis is concerned with the analysis of optimal investment strategies under the drawdown constraint. The finite horizon expectation maximization problem is studied for different types of utility functions. We compute the optimal investments strategies, by solving numerically the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation, that characterizes the dynamic programming principle related to the stochastic control problem. Based on a large panel of numerical experiments, we analyze the divergences of optimal allocation programs
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Maxime Bonelli. Modélisation stochastique des marchés financiers et optimisation de portefeuille. Mathématiques générales [math.GM]. Université Côte d'Azur, 2016. Français. ⟨NNT : 2016AZUR4050⟩. ⟨tel-01437123⟩



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