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The estimate of the underground economy : the contributions of the fuzzy modeling

Abstract : Much attention has been paid in recent years to the study of the underground economy in many developed and developing countries. The consequences and the policy implications linked with this ambiguous part of the economy have raised concerns among economists and governments that led to proposing various measures and estimation methods. It is not however easy to estimate accurately and precisely the size and trend of the underground economy due to its hidden nature. But, some techniques have been used by economists to directly and indirectly estimate the size of the underground economy.In this thesis, we have focused on the underground economy as a universal phenomenon having its unique and inescapable manifestation in the form of both legal and illegal activities. The main purpose of this thesis is to propose the fuzzy methods to measure the size and the amount of the underground economy.We first constructed a conceptual framework that allowed us to study the specifications of the underground economy. The common numerous estimation methods of the underground economy and their weaknesses and strengths were reviewed then. The basic conditions of applying the fuzzy concept and the initial conditions of the underground economy were investigated to see if they match. Since fuzzy modeling allows for rapid modeling even with imprecise and incomplete data and lets us to model non-linear functions of arbitrary complexity and achieve simplicity and flexibility, we were encouraged to apply fuzzy method.Two fuzzy methods were proposed to estimate the underground economy based on initial investigations during the period 1985-2010, including: the fuzzy modeling applying mean and standard deviation, the fuzzy modeling applying fuzzy clustering and Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (Structural Equation Modeling) with Fuzzy Data.Finally, the size of the underground economy was measured for France, Germany, Italy, USA and Canada and the results of these fuzzy methods were compared with other conventional methods. It can be claimed that the proposed methods in this work are qualitatively comparable to the common methods used to estimate the underground economy.
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Mostafa Tahmasebi. The estimate of the underground economy : the contributions of the fuzzy modeling. Economics and Finance. Université Grenoble Alpes, 2015. English. ⟨NNT : 2015GREAE007⟩. ⟨tel-01419582⟩

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