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La rupture de 2007 : changement électoral et dynamiques de réalignement en France

Abstract : This doctoral thesis studies partisan and electoral evolutions in France since the 1980s. The main hypothesis is that the 2007 elections represent a moment of rupture. Analysis of electoral change relies on realignment theory and cleavage theory. These theories help to articulate medium-term changes, which result from a reshaping of the political competition and long term changes, which stem from evolutions of society and of its main lines of division. An election, in order to be understood, needs to be replaced in a historical perspective, taking into account the path dependence in which it stands or from which it departs. This PhD thesis stresses the importance of periodization for making sense of the complexity of political phenomena, while distinguishing ‘spectacular' change from ‘fundamental' change.Using electoral results and survey data, we first analyze the electoral order instituted in 1984, and second, we explore the features which mark its collapse in 2007. We show that the rupture of 2007 does not result from an external shock, but rather from Nicolas Sarkozy's ‘race to the right' political strategy which put the FN and UMP electorates closer together. Since 2007, the old electoral order has not been reestablished, despite the recovery of the FN. The ‘Sarkozy revolution' of 2007 has not been erased because of the continuing radicalization of the UMP, while the centre is isolated and the left is in disarray following its comeback to power. The disorder observed since 2007, characterized by a high electoral volatility and the rise of new issues, represents a new realignment era with an uncertain future.
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Simon Labouret. La rupture de 2007 : changement électoral et dynamiques de réalignement en France. Science politique. Université de Grenoble, 2014. Français. ⟨NNT : 2014GRENH038⟩. ⟨tel-01348266⟩



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