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Les variations climatiques régionales observées et potentielles à l'échelle de 2 zones ateliers : Alpes et Armorique

Abstract : Climate change occuring during last decade will deeply modify climate and environnemental interaction. Inthis PhD, two sites of European Lon-Term Ecosystem Research Network (French Alps and Britany), specializedin human/nature relationships and environnmental studies were selected for analyzing phenological impact withclimate change constraint. The aim of this work is to determine the spatio-temporal variability of climate andphenology over both sites and to predict the response of forestry phenology under climate change constraint.Meteorological spatio-temporal variability is explained from Météo-France time series analyses and also withclimate reanalysis on the 1959-2009 period. Temperature and precipitation appeared to be best climatologicalvariable to discrimine the impact on vegetation. Since 1987, a significant temperature increase of about 1°C appears(less in the Alps and more in Armorics). Precipitation temporal variability appeared to change near year 1990with a quasi-biennial periods before and with a 6-8 year period after 1990. Phenology is used to monitor naturalforestry dynamics and the feedback on climate on vegetation. Bioclimatics data from « Observatoire des Saisons »and determined from remote sensing data (SPOT-VGT and MODIS datasets) are used to follow spatio-temporalvariability of the phenology. Relationships between climate and phenology are determined by statistical modelisation(degree-day model). SAFRAN-France data and phenological remote sensing data are combined to calibrate and tovalidate of the model in present time. Climate forecast from ALADIN model are used to execute the model on afutur period (2021-2050) with an thermal increase condition of around 1°C and a diminution of precipitation inArmorics (100 mm). Degree-day model predict an advance of growth phase over both site according to climateforcing.
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Submitted on : Thursday, October 22, 2015 - 3:03:06 PM
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Benoît Perrimond. Les variations climatiques régionales observées et potentielles à l'échelle de 2 zones ateliers : Alpes et Armorique. Milieux et Changements globaux. Université Grenoble Alpes, 2015. Français. ⟨NNT : 2015GREAU008⟩. ⟨tel-01219352⟩

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