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Analysis of uncertainty propagation in nuclear fuel cycle scenarios

Guillaume Krivtchik 1
1 LE2C - Laboratoire d'Etudes des Coeurs et du Cycle
SPRC - Service de Physique des Réacteurs et du Cycle : DEN/DER
Abstract : Nuclear scenario studies model nuclear fleet over a given period. They enablethe comparison of different options for the reactor fleet evolution, and the management ofthe future fuel cycle materials, from mining to disposal, based on criteria such as installedcapacity per reactor technology, mass inventories and flows, in the fuel cycle and in the waste.Uncertainties associated with nuclear data and scenario parameters (fuel, reactors and facilitiescharacteristics) propagate along the isotopic chains in depletion calculations, and throughoutthe scenario history, which reduces the precision of the results. The aim of this work isto develop, implement and use a stochastic uncertainty propagation methodology adaptedto scenario studies. The method chosen is based on development of depletion computationsurrogate models, which reduce the scenario studies computation time, and whose parametersinclude perturbations of the depletion model; and fabrication of equivalence model which takeinto account cross-sections perturbations for computation of fresh fuel enrichment. Then theuncertainty propagation methodology is applied to different scenarios of interest, consideringdifferent options of evolution for the French PWR fleet with SFR deployment.
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Guillaume Krivtchik. Analysis of uncertainty propagation in nuclear fuel cycle scenarios. Chemical and Process Engineering. Université de Grenoble, 2014. English. ⟨NNT : 2014GRENI050⟩. ⟨tel-01131207⟩

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