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PREVISION QUANTITATIVE DES PRECIPITATIONS : ADAPTATION PROBABILISTE PAR RECHERCHE D'ANALOGUES.Utilisation des Réanalyses NCEP / NCAR et application aux précipitations du Sud-Est de la France

Abstract : This work deals with the application of the analogy principle to rainfall forecast and simulation . Given a target meteorological situation, similar past situations are searched for in a meteorological archive . The precipitations amounts, associated with those analogous situations, allowed us to build a probabilistic estimation of the expected rainfall amount for the targest situation.At first, the criterions and scores we used to compare 2 different probabilistic forecasts have been defined. Then, we tried to identify the analogy algorithm which best suits the precipitation forecast. Relying on the NCEP/NCAR meteorological reanalyses, we built analogy algorithms which take into account both (I) large scale information brought by the synoptic circulation and (II) more local scale information brought by the humidity variables . The differentparameters of the algorithms ( choice of variables, spatial domain to consider , …) have been optimised through a first calibration step. Further, the validation of the calibrated algorithms allowed to appraise the forecast performances from the user point of view, as well as to study the sensibility of these algorithms to the features of the meteorological archives. Lastly, thanks to the implementation of an operational forecasting chain, we have been able to assess the on-line performances of the adaptation by analogues sorting. As a case-study, we focused on the catastrophic 8th and 9th September 2002 hydro-meteorological event, which occured in the Cevennes area ( France) .
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https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01090969
Contributor : Pascale Talour <>
Submitted on : Friday, December 5, 2014 - 2:15:16 PM
Last modification on : Thursday, November 19, 2020 - 3:54:28 PM
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Guillaume Bontron. PREVISION QUANTITATIVE DES PRECIPITATIONS : ADAPTATION PROBABILISTE PAR RECHERCHE D'ANALOGUES.Utilisation des Réanalyses NCEP / NCAR et application aux précipitations du Sud-Est de la France. Météorologie. Institut National Polytechnique Grenoble (INPG), 2004. Français. ⟨tel-01090969⟩

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