Modélisation de la dynamique des systèmes de peuplement : de SimpopLocal à SimpopNet

Abstract : Is urban growth the result of multiple interactions between cities ? Urban evolutionary theory (Pu main, 2000), based on this postulate, analyses urban growth processes. This thesis, undertaken in an inter-disciplinary context, aims to evaluate the validity of the hypothesis by means of computer simulation. Strong regularities of the urban systems dynamics are extracted from the accumulated scientific knowledge and synthetized into ten major stylized facts. Two simulation models, SimpopLocal and SimpopNet, are then built, documented - thanks to a standardized grid - and systematically explored. They each question a specific aspect of the urban evolutionary theory : the nature of the inter-urban interactions for the first model (i.e. competition for innovation) and their support for the second model (i.e. the role of the communication network structure). The evaluation of the two models required the design and the implementation of two original exploration protocols : an automated calibration method and a sensibility analysis protocol (the Exploration Profile algorithm) which individually evaluates the contribution of each implemented mechanism to the simulated behavior. These two forms of exploration systematically confront the simulation results with current scientific knowledge. They indicate that the two models are able to account for key processes of urban systems dynamics, such as their hierarchical organization, and demonstrate for the first time the need for interurban interaction mechanisms in order to simulate urban evolutions that are close to those observed on real urban systems.
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Submitted on : Monday, October 27, 2014 - 2:28:56 PM
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Clara Schmitt. Modélisation de la dynamique des systèmes de peuplement : de SimpopLocal à SimpopNet. Géographie. Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, 2014. Français. ⟨NNT : 2014PA010511⟩. ⟨tel-01077891⟩



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