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Adaptation et évaluation d'un système d'anticipation de crues éclair sur des bassins de montagne non-jaugés

Abstract : In Europe, flash floods primarily occur in the Mediterranean and mountainous areas. The concerned basins are often small and ungauged with a short lag time. Anticipating such events is a tricky task with many difficulties. This thesis is part of a common project between Irstea and Météo-France (RHYTMME project) with two objectives : the adaptation of the hydrological model of AIGA method to the mountainous areas, taking into account the environment characteristics the evaluation of the new model on small basins, which are actually ungauged. To achieve the first objective, the model is complicated by the integration of a snow modelling on 118 gauged basins. Then the model is regionalized. The second objective is to use flood reports from the mountain area restoration services database (services de Restauration des Terrains en Montagne (RTM)). The model is evaluated with these reports on 123 very small basins under conditions as close to as possible the reality. To overcome the second objective, an evaluation method is developed, based on contingency statistics, illustrating the coincidence between observed damages and threshold crossing by simulated flows. A graphic with the probability of detection (POD) according to the success rate (SR) is introduced for different thresholds. Thereby, a multi-threshold approach is used to compare hydrological models like ROC-curves. The main result, highlighted by this thesis is an evaluation on gauged basins is a necessary first step but not sufficient. Indeed, the works illustrate that the decided compromises on the large gauged basins don?t lead automatically to the best performances on the small basins occurring flash floods.
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Submitted on : Wednesday, May 28, 2014 - 1:27:09 PM
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  • HAL Id : tel-00997563, version 1


Dimitri Defrance. Adaptation et évaluation d'un système d'anticipation de crues éclair sur des bassins de montagne non-jaugés. Sciences de la Terre. Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris VI, 2014. Français. ⟨NNT : 2014PA066059⟩. ⟨tel-00997563⟩



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