Driving electric? A financial analysis of electric vehicle policies in France
Une évaluation financière des politiques publiques en faveur des véhicules électriques en France
Résumé
Electric vehicles are seen as remedy for various pressing public concerns and are thus increasingly benefiting from supportive policy measures. Such measures remain contested: their impact on actual vehicle uptake rates, their sustainability, usefulness and justification are far from being self-evident. This work aims at uncovering the effect of financial demand-side public policy measures on i) the uptake rate of electric vehicles among private households in France, and ii) the public budget. First, the context within which electric vehicles are to evolve is sketched. A comprehensive overview of the potential opportunities that come with the introduction of electric vehicles is given. An international policy review depicts public policy levers that are currently deployed in order to support the uptake of electric vehicles. A focus is put on financial demand-side measures. Preliminary conclusions on their effectiveness with regards to observed electric vehicle uptake rates in the various countries reviewed are drawn. Next, the potential market for electric vehicles among French households is explored. Besides financial aspects, socio-economic obstacles to electric vehicle uptake among private households are analysed. With the aid of scenario analysis that accounts for the many uncertainties with regards to future vehicle developments, costs and market trends, a forecast of the electric vehicles' potential up until 2023 is given. The applied disaggregate approach based on the database of the French National Transport Survey 2007/2008 allows identifying the most promising sets of financial public policy measures that are likely to guarantee certain electric vehicle uptake rates over the next decade. Lastly, the effect of replacing one conventional vehicle by one electric vehicle on the public budget is investigated. Both, vehicle manufacture and use aspects are considered. The set up valuation model hereby accounts for direct and indirect financial impacts on the public budget. These comprise direct purchase subsidies, tax breaks, and tax income, as well as effects of changing employment situations that alter the amount of social contributions and unemployment benefits. The study's findings allow for various suggestions for vehicle manufacturers and policy makers willing to support the uptake of electric vehicles.
L'étude s'attache à évaluer le marché potentiel des véhicules électriques auprès des ménages français. L'analyse porte non seulement sur les déterminants financiers de la demande, mais aussi sur les obstacles socio-économiques à l'adoption des véhicules électriques par ces ménages. L'approche désagrégée qui est appliquée à partir de la base de données de l'Enquête Nationale Transports et Déplacements 2007/2008 permet d'identifier les combinaisons d'instruments financiers les plus à même de garantir certains niveaux de pénétration du véhicule électrique dans la prochaine décennie. Les conclusions et observations tirées de l'étude permettent de formuler diverses suggestions à l'attention des constructeurs automobiles et des décideurs publics affichant la volonté de soutenir l'essor du véhicule électrique.
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