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Efficacité des programmes de reconstruction dans les sociétés post-conflictuelles

Hervé Hutin 1
LEPII - Laboratoire d'Économie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale
Abstract : The effectiveness of reconstruction programs in post-conflict contexts Abstract The thesis aims at assessing the effectiveness of reconstruction programs intended to ensure for the economic recovery of countries emerging from civil war since the end of the Cold War. From the standpoint of the method used, this effectiveness is both evaluated through the relevance of the content and the organization of these programs with regard to the characteristics of the post-conflict economies, and through an assessment of their performances according to recovery indicators which are specific to this context. The economic causes of conflicts and the functioning of a wartime economy are analyzed because they influence the transition to an economy in the context of peace (chapters 1 to 4). An approach in terms of political economy (Stewart, Fitzgerald) comparing both horizontal and vertical inequalities and completed by Amartya Sen's approach contributes to the account of the specific characteristics of this type of context which the neoclassical theory is not enabled to grasp. The approach in terms of sustainable livelihoods (Chambers and Conways), of the vulnerability due to the context and of the institutional economy, provides a coherent theoretical framework in order to identify the economic features of post-conflict societies (chapters 5 to 7) and enables for the identification of the factors which block or slow down the process of economic recovery. The study of the configuration of reconstruction programs reveals the multiplication of actors which have different approaches, a lack of coordination in their work, and the formation of a substitute administration non-aligned to the fragile state (chapter 8). Closer ties between the programs and the observed characteristics enable for the evaluation of their effectiveness (chapter 9). The quantitative evaluation arrives at the conclusion that these programs are relative failures, especially due to their sluggishness. From the data available, the significance of some specific variables is observed (the return of populations, institutions, security). The qualitative analysis of the causes of this ineffectiveness reveals: Perverse effects due to the lack of coordination, analyzed through the transaction costs theory, the contingence theory, and the marginalist theory, more particularly in the labor markets, the administrative capacity, reveals a threshold of institutional capacities; Poor adaptation in the design and the implementation of the programs to the observed characteristics. Between the references towards the Marshall Plan and the absence of any exterior intervention, the analysis of this ineffectiveness concludes that some requirements should be adapted for each context.
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Hervé Hutin. Efficacité des programmes de reconstruction dans les sociétés post-conflictuelles. Economies et finances. Université de Grenoble, 2012. Français. ⟨NNT : 2012GRENE016⟩. ⟨tel-00932461⟩



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