Indices de Sobol généralisés pour variables dépendantes

Gaëlle Chastaing 1
1 MOISE - Modelling, Observations, Identification for Environmental Sciences
Inria Grenoble - Rhône-Alpes, LJK - Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann, INPG - Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble
Abstract : A mathematical model aims at characterizing a complex system or process that is too expensive to experiment. However, in this model, often strongly non linear, input parameters can be affected by a large uncertainty including errors of measurement of lack of information. Global sensitivity analysis is a stochastic approach whose objective is to identify and to rank the input variables that drive the uncertainty of the model output. Through this analysis, it is then possible to reduce the model dimension and the variation in the output of the model. To reach this objective, the Sobol indices are commonly used. Based on the functional ANOVA decomposition of the output, also called Hoeffding decomposition, they stand on the assumption that the incomes are independent. Our contribution is on the extension of Sobol indices for models with non independent inputs. In one hand, we propose a generalized functional decomposition, where its components is subject to specific orthogonal constraints. This decomposition leads to the definition of generalized sensitivity indices able to quantify the dependent inputs' contribution to the model variability. On the other hand, we propose two numerical methods to estimate these constructed indices. The first one is well-fitted to models with independent pairs of dependent input variables. The method is performed by solving linear system involving suitable projection operators. The second method can be applied to more general models. It relies on the recursive construction of functional systems satisfying the orthogonality properties of summands of the generalized decomposition. In parallel, we illustrate the two methods on numerical examples to test the efficiency of the techniques.
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Gaëlle Chastaing. Indices de Sobol généralisés pour variables dépendantes. Méthodologie [stat.ME]. Université de Grenoble, 2013. Français. ⟨tel-00930229⟩

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