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Génération d'accélérogrammes synthétiques large-bande : contribution à l’estimation de l’aléa sismique par validation d’approches en aveugle

Abstract : One of the major scientific problems in seismology is to estimate the ground motions expected at a given site from a future earthquake. The aim of this thesis is to test and validate two different methods of ground motions simulation based on the empirical Green’s function approach and to provide elements that can help to develop a blind simulation methodology. In a first part, a simulation method based on a stochastic point source approach is validated on the real data of recent earthquakes well instrumented : the Les Saintes earthquake Mw6.4 and the L’Aquila earthquake Mw6.3. We have developed a blind simulation approach by taking into account an uncertainty on the parameter of stress drop ratio C. This approach allows to generate a set of synthetic accelerograms of a target earthquake varied enough to be representative of a large number of possible source scenario and taking into account in a statistical sense potential directivity effects. This approach is also applied to the simulation of an historical Pyrenean earthquake Mw6.1. In a second part, we use a more complex extended source model, combining kinematic models of fractal composite sources with EGF approach. The potential of the method is tested on an application to L’Aquila earthquake. This has produced very satisfying results on all ground motion parameters analyzed. This simulation method appears to be very promising for the implementation of a blind simulation methodology, even if the main difficulty lies in the need to define the variability of many poorly known input parameters in the simulation of a future earthquake.
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Laëtitia Honoré-Foundotos. Génération d'accélérogrammes synthétiques large-bande : contribution à l’estimation de l’aléa sismique par validation d’approches en aveugle. Sciences de la Terre. Université Nice Sophia Antipolis, 2013. Français. ⟨NNT : 2013NICE4054⟩. ⟨tel-00920208⟩

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