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Modélisation des consommations d'énergie du secteur résidentiel français à long terme - Amélioration du réalisme comportemental et scénarios volontaristes

Abstract : This thesis aims to integrate components of an economic model of the behaviors of households in a technological model of French residential sector energy consumption dynamics and to analyze the consequences of this integration on the results of long-term residential energy consumption simulations (2030-2050). The results of this work highlight significant differences between the actual household space heating energy consumptions and those estimated by engineering models. These differences are largely due to the elasticity of thermal comfort demand to thermal comfort price. Our improved model makes it possible to conjointly integrate the concepts of price elasticity and rebound effect (the increase in energy service level following an improvement in energy performance of the equipment providing the service) in a daily behavior model. Regarding space heating consumption, the consequences of this behavioral adaptation - combined with some technical defects - are a significant reduction of the technical and behavorial energy saving potentials (while effective daily use of energy is generally lower than predicted by engineering models) at a national level. This implies that mid and long-term national energy policy targets (a 38% drop in primary energy consumption by 2020 and a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by a factor of 4 by 2050 compared to the 1990 level) will be harder to reach than previously expected for the residential sector. These results also imply that a strong reduction in carbon emissions cannot be achieved solely through the diffusion of efficient technologies and energy conservation behavior but also requires to significantly lower the average carbon content of residential space heating energy through the generalized use of wood energy. The second issue addressed in this thesis is the influence of the resolution of a techno-economic model (i.e. its ability to represent the various values that a variable can have within the modeled system) on its results. Simulation results show that the modeling of the distributions instead of the average values of variables changes both the estimations of total energy consumption of dwelling stock and the dynamics of this consumption. The comparison of refurbishment market modeling in engineering and econometric models shows that a part of the heterogeneity of the market is not accounted for in engineering models. If the economic context encourages the diffusion of energy efficient or low-carbon technologies (for instance in the case of a significant carbon tax) then adding market heterogeneity in engineering models implies more pessimistic simulation results regarding energy consumption reduction and GHG abatements. The model of French residential energy consumption dynamics that was developed during the thesis (BEUS) has been applied to various foresight studies. A progressive tariff (or tier pricing) on electricity has been modeled and its effects on demand have been simulated. When applied, this tariff causes a switch from electricity-based heating systems to more carbon intensive ones. In order to avoid this unwanted effect of progressive tariff, an extension of this tariff structure to all energies has been modeled and simulated, as well as the fiscal equivalent of this measure: a bonus-malus for sustainable energy consumption. The simulations - made in a simplified regulatory environment - show that these measures could accelerate the transition of existing housing stock to a lower level of energy consumption and GHG emissions.
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Contributor : Benoit Allibe <>
Submitted on : Wednesday, October 16, 2013 - 10:24:02 PM
Last modification on : Sunday, October 25, 2020 - 7:07:00 AM


  • HAL Id : tel-00872403, version 1


Benoit Allibe. Modélisation des consommations d'énergie du secteur résidentiel français à long terme - Amélioration du réalisme comportemental et scénarios volontaristes. Economies et finances. Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS), 2012. Français. ⟨NNT : 9675768⟩. ⟨tel-00872403⟩



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