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Amélioration des estimations quantitatives des précipitations à hautes résolutions : comparaison de deux techniques combinant les observations et application à la vérification spatiale des modèles météorologiques

Abstract : In the last decades, many efforts were made to better understand the origins of rain that sometimes lead to rivers runoff or devastating floods. In 2009, a consortium took place in Auvergne in order to observe and predict these events. These works were focused on the improvement of quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE) and the verification of numerical weather models over small areas such as urban environment. Rainfall measurement could be operated either by rain gauges which provides direct and precise rainfall estimations but unfortunately cannot capture the spatial variability or by using weather RADAR which provides a detailed spatial representation of precipitation but estimates are derived indirectly and are subject to a combination of errors which are most pronounced over complex terrain. The main issue of these works was to find the best way to combine both observational systems which are complementary as well. In order to obtain the more truthful fields of QPE, two geostatistical techniques were selected: the kriging with external drift (KED) and the conditional merging (MERG). The performances of these two methods have been experienced on two catchments with different spatial and temporal resolutions. The second part of these works is focused on a reliable method for QPE comparison and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The main effort was focused on the “Weather Research and Forecasting” (WRF) model. A preliminary study was made to check the performances of the microphysics schemes of the model to ensure realistic forecasts for an application on real cases. The spatial verification of the model set up contains three distinct components that consider aspects of the structure, amplitude and location of the precipitation field (SAL : Wernli et al. 2008, 2009).
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Submitted on : Friday, October 11, 2013 - 11:52:18 AM
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Carole Legorgeu. Amélioration des estimations quantitatives des précipitations à hautes résolutions : comparaison de deux techniques combinant les observations et application à la vérification spatiale des modèles météorologiques. Sciences de la Terre. Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand II, 2013. Français. ⟨NNT : 2013CLF22359⟩. ⟨tel-00872131⟩

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