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Individual based models of social systems : data driven hybrid micro-models of rural development and collective dynamics of filtering or rejecting messages

Abstract : This thesis is dedicated to individual-based modeling of social systems. While the first part is very practical, decision-support oriented, presenting a model which studies the evolution of a rural population, the second part is more theoretical, interested in various mechanisms allowing individual to accept or resist to social influence. Firstly, we propose an individual-based model of the European rural municipalities implemented for the French Cantal département. We use a new sample-free algorithm for generating the initial population, while classical methods require an initial sample. We design and parameterize the individual activity dynamics with data from the European Labour Force Survey database. The individual dynamics includes an original heuristic for labour statuses and employments changes, based on individual age, profession and activity sector when she is occupied. The last part of the model deals with dynamics that we have not been able to derive from data, mainly the demographic dynamics. Based on the Occam razor principle, we test very simple dynamics and choose them on their capacity to lead to model results close to reference data. In particular, we propose a simple residential mobility model, partly ruling the emigration, which integrates decision to move and location choice. Secondly, we study the collective effects of various mechanisms leading individuals to resist or accept social influence. A first mechanism leads individuals to neglect some features of an object if they are not important enough or incongruent. These individuals exhibit the primacy bias because their attitudes are determined by the first accepted feature. We show that this bias increases when individuals directly exchange about features compared to when they only get the features from the media, in a random order. The second mechanism is a rejection reaction that we suppose occurring because of the discomfort taking place when individuals are close on one dimension of attitude and far on another dimension. The main effect of this rejection mechanism is to lead to a lower number of clusters than with the attraction mechanism alone.
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Submitted on : Wednesday, September 4, 2013 - 2:01:53 PM
Last modification on : Wednesday, February 24, 2021 - 4:26:02 PM
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  • HAL Id : tel-00856248, version 1

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Sylvie Huet. Individual based models of social systems : data driven hybrid micro-models of rural development and collective dynamics of filtering or rejecting messages. Other [cs.OH]. Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand II, 2013. English. ⟨NNT : 2013CLF22332⟩. ⟨tel-00856248⟩

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