Terrorisme international et mesures de sûreté : analyse économique du comportement du voyageur sur le réseau de transport aérien mondial

Abstract : In our dissertation, we question the impact of both international terrorism and security measures on the behavior of the users of the global air transportation network. Using an econometric model, we analyze a new database, AirNetTerror, which contains data on all international passenger flows toward the U.S. from 1990 to 2006 as well as the events of international terrorism by country for the same period. The relevance of our research is twofold. On the one hand, our investigation regarding air travelers' behavior and their possibilities of modifying their itinerary in light of international terrorism has - so far as we know - never been studied. On the other hand, as we analyze passenger flows from the perspective of the network, we propose a dynamic representation of the impact of travelers' behavior changes related to terrorist threats and security measures. In particular, taking into account the interdependent security that rules the global air transport network, allows us to question the existence of failures in security measures. Our results underline a significant impact of both international terrorist events and security measures. Furthermore, we locally observe itinerary modifications of travelers that are linked to the previous phenomena. Thus, the combined effect of terrorist threats and security measures seems to lead to equilibrium breaks - that are limited but real - in passenger flows of the global air network. Our thesis offers a different representation of the impact of international terrorism on air transport by placing the traveler's behavior at the center of the strategic interactions between security actors and terrorists.
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Marine Lericolais. Terrorisme international et mesures de sûreté : analyse économique du comportement du voyageur sur le réseau de transport aérien mondial. Economies et finances. Université Lumière - Lyon II, 2011. Français. ⟨tel-00816114⟩

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