Statistical Post-Processing Methods And Their Implementation On The Ensemble Prediction Systems For Forecasting Temperature In The Use Of The French Electric Consumption

Abstract : The thesis has for objective to study new statistical methods to correct temperature predictionsthat may be implemented on the ensemble prediction system (EPS) of Meteo France so toimprove its use for the electric system management, at EDF France. The EPS of Meteo Francewe are working on contains 51 members (forecasts by time-step) and gives the temperaturepredictions for 14 days. The thesis contains three parts: in the first one we present the EPSand we implement two statistical methods improving the accuracy or the spread of the EPS andwe introduce criteria for comparing results. In the second part we introduce the extreme valuetheory and the mixture models we use to combine the model we build in the first part withmodels for fitting the distributions tails. In the third part we introduce the quantile regressionas another way of studying the tails of the distribution.
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Adriana Geanina Gogonel. Statistical Post-Processing Methods And Their Implementation On The Ensemble Prediction Systems For Forecasting Temperature In The Use Of The French Electric Consumption. General Mathematics [math.GM]. Université René Descartes - Paris V, 2012. English. ⟨NNT : 2012PA05S014⟩. ⟨tel-00798576⟩

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