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Modélisation déterministe de la transmission des infections à Papillomavirus Humain : Impact de la vaccination

Abstract : Human Papillomavirus infection (HPV) is the most frequent sexually transmitted disease. Epidemiological studies have established a causal relationship between HPV infections and occurence of cervical cancer. These infections have also been incriminated in anogenital cancers and anogenital warts among women and men. Since the introduction of bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines which offer protection against some HPV genotypes, many mathematical models have been developed in order to assess the potential impact of vaccine strategies. The aim of this thesis work was to assess the potential impact of HPV vaccination in France on the incidence of some cancers linked with HPV, particularly cervical cancer and anal cancer in French women, and on the prevalence of HPV 6/11/16/18 infections. Different deterministic dynamic models have been developped. They are represented by systems of ordinary differential equations. A theoretical analysis of the asymptotic behavior for a first model with few strata is realized. The basic reproduction number R0 and the vaccinated reproduction number Rv are assessed. More complex models taking into account age and sexual behavior have been developed. Using vaccination rates observed in France at the launch of the vaccination campaign, our modeling shows the large impact of vaccination on HPV prevalences, on cervical cancer and anal cancer incidences among French women within a few decades
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Submitted on : Wednesday, December 19, 2012 - 10:43:25 AM
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Laureen Majed. Modélisation déterministe de la transmission des infections à Papillomavirus Humain : Impact de la vaccination. Médecine humaine et pathologie. Université René Descartes - Paris V, 2012. Français. ⟨NNT : 2012PA05S010⟩. ⟨tel-00766857⟩



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