D. Acemoglu, Politics and economics in weak and strong states, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.52, issue.7, pp.1199-1226, 2005.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2005.05.001
URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.528.220

D. Acemoglu, J. A. Robinson, P. Querubin, and S. Johnson, When does policy reform work? The case of central bank independence, Brookings Paper on Economic Activity, vol.39, issue.1, pp.351-429, 2008.
DOI : 10.3386/w14033

D. Acemoglu, D. Ticchi, and A. Vindigni, EMERGENCE AND PERSISTENCE OF INEFFICIENT STATES, Journal of the European Economic Association, vol.9, issue.2, pp.177-208, 2011.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1542-4774.2010.01008.x

C. Adolph, Paper autonomy, private ambition: Theory and evidence linking central bankers' career and economic performance, paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, 2003.

C. Adolph, Three simple tests of career influences on monetary policy', paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, 2005.

C. Adolph, Bankers, Bureaucrats, and Central Bank Politics: The Myth of Neutrality Selected chapters available at author's homepage http
DOI : 10.1017/CBO9781139506762

A. Aisen and F. J. Veiga, The political economy of seigniorage, Journal of Development Economics, vol.87, issue.1, pp.29-50, 2008.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2007.12.006

A. Aisen and F. J. Veiga, Political instability and inflation volatility, Public Choice, pp.3-4, 2008.
DOI : 10.1007/s11127-007-9254-x
URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.559.1554

G. A. Akerlof and R. E. Kranton, Economics and Identity*, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.115, issue.3, pp.715-753, 2000.
DOI : 10.1162/003355300554881

M. Alain, The historical and philosophical foundations of new political economy The Elgar Companion to Economics and Philosophy, 2004.

A. Alesina, Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.102, issue.3, 1987.
DOI : 10.2307/1884222

A. Alesina, Political Economy, pp.1-5, 2007.

A. Alesina and L. H. Summers, Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol.25, issue.2, pp.151-162, 1993.
DOI : 10.2307/2077833

A. Alesina and A. Stella, The politics of monetary policy, Handbook of Monetary Economics, 2011.

F. A. Al-marhubi, Corruption and inflation, Economics Letters, vol.66, issue.2, pp.199-202, 2000.
DOI : 10.1016/S0165-1765(99)00230-X

M. Arellano and S. Bond, Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations, The Review of Economic Studies, vol.58, issue.2, pp.277-297, 1991.
DOI : 10.2307/2297968

K. Arrow, Social Choice and Individual Values, 1951.

R. Baeriswyl and C. Cornand, Transparency and Monetary Policy Effectiveness, Annals of Economics and Statistics, vol.103104, issue.103/104, pp.165-184, 2011.
DOI : 10.2307/41615498
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00651028

L. Ball and S. G. Cecchetti, Inflation and Uncertainty at Short and Long Horizons, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol.1990, issue.1, pp.215-254, 1990.
DOI : 10.2307/2534528

R. J. Barro and D. G. Gordon, Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.12, issue.1, pp.101-121, 1983.
DOI : 10.1016/0304-3932(83)90051-X

R. J. Barro and D. G. Gordon, A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model, Journal of Political Economy, vol.91, issue.4, pp.589-610, 1983.
DOI : 10.1086/261167

P. Beaudry and F. Portier, When can changes in expectations cause business cycle fluctuations in neo-classical settings?, Journal of Economic Theory, vol.135, issue.1, pp.458-477, 2007.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jet.2006.06.009

N. L. Beck and J. N. Katz, What To Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data, American Political Science Review, vol.89, issue.03, pp.634-647, 1995.
DOI : 10.2307/1962400

R. W. Beetsma and H. Jensen, Why Money Talks and Wealth Whispers: Monetary Uncertainty and Mystique: A Comment, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol.35, issue.1, pp.129-136, 2003.
DOI : 10.1353/mcb.2003.0001

D. A. Belsley, E. Kuh, and R. E. Welsch, Regression diagnostics: Identifying influential data and sources of collinearity, 2004.
DOI : 10.1002/0471725153

P. L. Berger and T. Luckmann, The Social Construction of Reality: A Treatise in the Sociology of Knowledge, 1967.

L. Benati, The "Great Moderation" in the United Kingdom, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol.29, issue.15, pp.121-147, 2008.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1467-937X.2005.00353.x

L. Benati, Are policy counterfactuals based on structural VARs reliable?', ECB Working Paper Series, p.1188, 2010.

L. Benati and P. Surico, VAR Analysis and the Great Moderation, American Economic Review, vol.99, issue.4, pp.1636-1652, 2009.
DOI : 10.1257/aer.99.4.1636
URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.128.9707

L. Benati and C. Goodhart, Monetary Policy Regimes and Economic Performance, Handbook of Monetary Economics, 1979.
DOI : 10.1016/B978-0-444-53454-5.00009-8

B. Bernanke, The Great Moderation', speech at the meeting of the Eastern Economic Association, 2004.

T. Besley, The New Political Economy, The Economic Journal, vol.33, issue.4, pp.570-587, 2007.
DOI : 10.1007/BF00133748

T. Besley, N. Meads, and P. Surico, Insiders versus Outsiders in Monetary Policymaking, American Economic Review, vol.98, issue.2, pp.218-223, 2008.
DOI : 10.1257/aer.98.2.218

K. Blackburn and J. Powell, Corruption, inflation and growth, Economics Letters, vol.113, issue.3, pp.225-227, 2011.
DOI : 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.06.015

O. Blanchard and S. Fischer, Lectures on Macroeconomics, 1989.

O. Blanchard and J. Simon, The long and large decline in US output volatility, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol.1, pp.135-164, 2001.

O. Blanchard, J. Huillier, and G. Lorenzoni, News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration, American Economic Review, vol.103, issue.7, 2009.
DOI : 10.1257/aer.103.7.3045
URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.329.5451

A. S. Blinder, Monetary policy by committee: Why and how?, European Journal of Political Economy, vol.23, issue.1, pp.106-123, 2007.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2006.01.003
URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.380.9878

A. S. Blinder, M. Ehrmann, M. Fratzscher, J. De-haan, and D. Jansen, Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence, Journal of Economic Literature, vol.46, issue.4, pp.910-955, 2008.
DOI : 10.1257/jel.46.4.910

A. S. Blinder and J. Morgan, Are Two Heads Better Than One? Monetary Policy by Committee, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol.37, issue.5, pp.789-812, 2005.
DOI : 10.1353/mcb.2005.0048

A. S. Blinder, M. Ehrmann, M. Fratzscher, J. De-haan, and D. Hansen, Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence, Journal of Economic Literature, vol.46, issue.4, pp.910-955, 2008.
DOI : 10.1257/jel.46.4.910

J. Boivin and M. P. Giannoni, Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol.1, issue.2, pp.445-462, 2006.
DOI : 10.1257/aer.91.2.232
URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.133.510

P. Bourdieu, Distinction: A Social Critique of the Judgement of Taste, Journal of Economic Sociology, vol.6, issue.3, 1984.
DOI : 10.17323/1726-3247-2005-3-25-48

T. Brambor, W. R. Clark, and M. Golder, Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses, Political Analysis, vol.36, issue.01, pp.63-82, 2006.
DOI : 10.1111/0022-3816.00012
URL : http://pan.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/14/1/63

J. M. Buchanan and G. Tullock, The Calculus of Consent, 1962.
DOI : 10.3998/mpub.7687

W. H. Buiter, Alice in Euroland, JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, vol.37, issue.2, pp.181-209, 1999.
DOI : 10.1111/1468-5965.00159

R. J. Caballero, Macroeconomics after the Crisis: Time to Deal with the Pretense-of-Knowledge Syndrome, Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol.24, issue.4, pp.85-102, 2010.
DOI : 10.1257/jep.24.4.85

L. G. Cabanillas and E. Ruscher, The Great Moderation in the euro area: What role had macroeconomic policies played, 2008.

A. C. Cameron and P. K. Trivedi, Microeconometrics: Methods and Applications, 2005.
DOI : 10.1017/CBO9780511811241

M. Campillo and J. A. Mirron, Why does inflation differ across countries?, Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, 1996.
DOI : 10.3386/w5540

F. Canova and L. Gambetti, Structural changes in the US economy: Bad luck or bad policy, 2004.

M. B. Canzoneri and C. A. Rogers, Is the European Community an optimal currency area? Optimal taxation versus the cost of multiple currencies, American Economic Review, vol.80, issue.3, pp.419-433, 1990.

G. Carboni and M. Ellison, Inflation and output volatility under asymmetric incomplete information, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol.35, issue.1, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jedc.2010.08.003
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00753043

T. V. Cavalcanti, V. De, and A. P. Villamil, OPTIMAL INFLATION TAX AND STRUCTURAL REFORM, Macroeconomic Dynamics, pp.333-362, 2003.
DOI : 10.1017/S1365100502020096

S. G. Ceccheti, A. Flores-lagunes, and S. Krause, Has Monetary Policy become more Efficient? a Cross-Country Analysis, The Economic Journal, vol.47, issue.2, pp.408-433, 2006.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2006.01086.x

S. G. Ceccheti, A. Flores-lagunes, and S. Krause, Assessing the sources of changes in the volatility of real growth, 2006.
DOI : 10.3386/w11946

H. W. Chappell, R. R. Mcgregor, and T. Vermilyea, Committee Decisions on Monetary Policy, 2005.

J. Choi and M. Thum, CORRUPTION AND THE SHADOW ECONOMY*, International Economic Review, vol.45, issue.3, pp.817-836, 2005.
DOI : 10.1162/00335530360535180

K. Chang-jin, J. Morley, and J. Piger, Bayesian counterfactual analysis of the sources of the Great Moderation, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol.23, pp.173-191, 2008.

G. Chortareas, D. Stasavage, and G. Sterne, Does it pay to be transparent? International evidence from central bank forecasts', Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis Review, vol.84, pp.99-117, 2002.

G. Chortareas, D. Stasavage, and G. Sterne, Does monetary policy transparency reduce disinflation costs?, The Manchester School, vol.50, issue.483, pp.521-540, 2003.
DOI : 10.1016/S0167-2231(00)00006-3

B. Clarke, Political Economy: A Comparative Approach, 1998.

T. Cogley and T. J. Sargent, Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII US, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol.8, issue.2, pp.262-302, 2005.
DOI : 10.1016/j.red.2004.10.009

B. ?ori?, The Global Extent of the Great Moderation*, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol.3, issue.4, 2011.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1468-0084.2011.00659.x

S. E. Crane and F. Nourzad, Inflation and Tax Evasion: An Empirical Analysis, The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol.68, issue.2, pp.217-223, 1986.
DOI : 10.2307/1925500

C. Crowe and E. E. Meade, The Evolution of Central Bank Governance around the World, Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol.21, issue.4, pp.69-90, 2007.
DOI : 10.1257/jep.21.4.69

C. Crowe and E. E. Meade, Central bank independence and transparency: Evolution and effectiveness, 2008.

A. Cukierman, Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, and Independence: Theory and Evidence, 1992.

A. Cukierman, Central bank independence and monetary policymaking institutions ??? Past, present and future, European Journal of Political Economy, vol.24, issue.4, pp.722-736, 2008.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2008.07.007

A. Cukierman, S. Webb, and B. Neyapti, Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes, The World Bank Economic Review, vol.6, issue.3, pp.353-398, 1992.
DOI : 10.1093/wber/6.3.353

A. Cukierman, S. Edwards, and G. Tabellini, Seigniorage and political instability, American Economic Review, vol.82, issue.3, pp.537-555, 1992.
DOI : 10.3386/w3199

E. Dabla-norris, M. Gradstein, and G. Inchauste, What causes firms to hide output? The determinants of informality, Journal of Development Economics, vol.85, issue.1-2, pp.1-27, 2008.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2006.05.007

J. S. Davis and J. A. Kahn, Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the volatility of economic activity at the macro and micro levels, 2008.

D. Blas-perez and B. , Can financial frictions help explain the performance of the U.S. Fed?', The B, E. Journal of Macroeconomics, vol.9, issue.1, 2009.

J. De-haan and W. Kooi, Does central bank independence really matter?, Journal of Banking & Finance, vol.24, issue.4, pp.643-664, 2000.
DOI : 10.1016/S0378-4266(99)00084-9

M. Demertzis and A. Hallett, Central Bank transparency in theory and practice, Journal of Macroeconomics, vol.29, issue.4, pp.760-789, 2007.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jmacro.2005.06.002

D. 'hernoncourt, J. , and P. Méon, The not so dark side of trust: Does trust increase the size of the shadow economy?, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, vol.81, issue.1, pp.97-121, 2012.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jebo.2011.09.010

N. Dincer and B. Eichengreen, Central bank transparency: Where, why and with what effect, 2007.
DOI : 10.3386/w13003

N. Dincer and B. Eichengreen, Central bank transparency: Causes, consequences and updates, Theoretical Enquiries in Law, 2010.

A. Downs, An Economic Theory of Democracy, 1957.

A. Drazen, S. N. Durlauf, and L. E. Blume, Political business cycles The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2009.

A. Dreher, M. J. Lamla, S. M. Lein, and F. Somogyi, The impact of political leaders' profession and education on reforms, Journal of Comparative Economics, vol.37, issue.1, pp.169-193, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jce.2008.08.005

A. Dreher, J. E. Sturm, and J. De-haan, Does high inflation cause central bankers to lose their job? Evidence based on a new data set, European Journal of Political Economy, vol.24, issue.4, pp.778-787, 2008.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2008.04.001

A. Dreher and F. Schneider, Corruption and the shadow economy: an empirical analysis, Public Choice, vol.CVIII, issue.3, pp.215-238, 2010.
DOI : 10.1007/s11127-009-9513-0

A. Dreher, C. Kotsogiannis, and S. Mccorriston, How do institutions affect corruption and the shadow economy?, International Tax and Public Finance, vol.109, issue.3, pp.773-796, 2009.
DOI : 10.1007/s10797-008-9089-5

J. Driscoll and A. C. Kraay, Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Spatially Dependent Panel Data, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol.2, issue.2, pp.549-560, 1998.
DOI : 10.2307/2281644

S. Edwards and G. Tabellini, Explaining fiscal policies and inflation in developing countries, Journal of International Money and Finance, vol.10, pp.16-48, 1991.
DOI : 10.1016/0261-5606(91)90045-L

B. Égert, Fiscal policy reaction to the cycle in the OECD: Pro or counter cyclical, Economix Working Paper, pp.2012-2024, 2012.

E. Eichengreen and R. Razo-garcia, The international monetary system in the last and next 20 years', Economic Policy, pp.393-442, 2006.

S. C. Eijffinger and P. M. Geraats, How transparent are central banks?, European Journal of Political Economy, vol.22, issue.1, pp.1-21, 2006.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2005.09.013
URL : http://repub.eur.nl/pub/73449/1-s2.0-S0176268005000868-main.pdf

N. Elias, The Civilizing Process, 1969.

C. Elgin and O. Oztunali, Shadow economies around the world: Model based estimates', Working Papers, 2012.

É. Farvaque, H. Hammadou, and P. Stanek, Select your committee: The impact of central bankers' background on inflation, Économie Internationale, pp.99-129, 2009.

L. P. Feld and C. Larsen, Black activities in Germany A comparison based on survey data', Rockwool Foundation Research Unit, 2001.

E. Friedman, S. Johnson, D. Kaufman, and P. Zoido-lobaton, Dodging the grabbing hand: the determinants of unofficial activity in 69 countries, Journal of Public Economics, vol.76, issue.3, pp.459-493, 2000.
DOI : 10.1016/S0047-2727(99)00093-6

A. R. Froyen and . Guender, Optimal Monetary Policy under Uncertainty, 2007.
DOI : 10.4337/9781847208644

M. Fry, D. Julius, L. Mahadeva, S. Roger, and G. Sterne, Key Issues in the Choice of Monetary Policy Framework, Monetary Policy Frameworks in a Global Context, 2000.

L. Gambetti, E. Pappa, and F. Canova, Structural changes in the US economy: What explains the changes?', CREI manuscript, 2005.

P. M. Geraats, Central Bank Transparency*, The Economic Journal, vol.85, issue.1, pp.532-565, 2002.
DOI : 10.1111/1468-0335.00168

P. M. Geraats, The mystique of central bank speak, International Journal of Central Banking, vol.3, issue.1, pp.37-80, 2007.

P. M. Geraats, Trends in Monetary Policy Transparency, International Finance, vol.3, issue.(1), pp.235-268, 2009.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1468-2362.2009.01239.x
URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.531.4235

P. Gerlach-kristen, Is the MPC's Voting Record Informative about Future UK Monetary Policy?, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol.106, issue.2, pp.299-313, 2004.
DOI : 10.1111/1468-5965.00175

P. Gerlach-kristen, Outsiders at the Bank of England's MPC, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol.41, issue.6, pp.1099-1115, 2009.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2009.00248.x

H. Gersbach and V. Hahn, VOTING TRANSPARENCY, CONFLICTING INTERESTS, AND THE APPOINTMENT OF CENTRAL BANKERS, Economics and Politics, vol.3, issue.3, pp.321-345, 2004.
DOI : 10.1016/0304-3932(86)90006-1

K. Gërxhani, Tax evasion in transition: Outcome of an institutional clash? Testing Feige's conjecture in Albania, European Economic Review, vol.48, issue.4, pp.729-745, 2004.
DOI : 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2003.08.014

K. Gërxhani, The Informal Sector in Developed and Less Developed Countries: A Literature Survey, Public Choice, vol.120, issue.3/4, pp.3-4, 2004.
DOI : 10.1023/B:PUCH.0000044287.88147.5e

D. Giannone, M. Lenza, and L. Reichlin, Explaining The Great Moderation: It Is Not The Shocks, Journal of the European Economic Association, vol.6, issue.2-3, pp.621-633, 2008.
DOI : 10.1162/JEEA.2008.6.2-3.621
URL : http://arrow.latrobe.edu.au:8080/vital/access/manager/Repository/latrobe:13318/SOURCE1

G. Gigerenzer and D. G. Goldstein, Betting on one good reason: The take the best heuristic, Simple Heuristics that Make Us Smart, 1999.

J. A. Gildea, The Regional Representation of Federal Reserve Bank Presidents, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol.24, issue.2, pp.215-225, 1992.
DOI : 10.2307/1992737

S. Göhlmann and R. Vaubel, The Educational and Professional Background of Central Bankers and its Effect on Inflation - An Empirical Analysis, SSRN Electronic Journal, vol.51, pp.925-941, 2007.
DOI : 10.2139/ssrn.784566

H. W. Greene, Econometric Analysis, NJ, 2012.

H. P. Grüner, B. Hayo, and C. Hefeker, Unions, Wage Setting and Monetary Policy Uncertainty, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, vol.9, issue.1, 2009.
DOI : 10.2202/1935-1690.1693

V. Hahn, Transparency of Central Bank Preferences, German Economic Review, vol.37, issue.1, pp.32-49, 2008.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1468-0475.2008.00440.x

D. C. Hambrick and P. A. Mason, Upper echelons: The organization as a reflection of its top managers', The Academy of, Management Review, vol.9, pp.193-206, 1984.

S. Hansen and M. Mcmahon, What do outside experts bring to a committee? Evidence from the Bank of England, Economics Research Paper Series, issue.946, 2010.

M. Harris, P. Levine, and C. Spencer, A decade of dissent: explaining the dissent voting behavior of Bank of England MPC members, Public Choice, vol.13, issue.2, pp.413-442, 2011.
DOI : 10.1007/s11127-010-9597-6

T. Havrileski and J. Gildea, Reliable and unreliable partisan appointees to the Board of Governors, Public Choice, pp.397-417, 1992.
DOI : 10.1007/BF01789559

F. Hayashi, Econometrics, 2000.

B. Hayo and C. Hefeker, Reconsidering central bank independence, European Journal of Political Economy, vol.18, issue.4, pp.653-674, 2002.
DOI : 10.1016/S0176-2680(02)00113-1

B. Hayo and C. Hefeker, The Complex Relationship between Central Bank Independence and Inflation, Challenges in Central Banking, 2010.
DOI : 10.1017/CBO9780511762802.008

B. Hayo and M. Neuenkirch, Do Federal Reserve communications help predict federal funds target rate decisions?, Journal of Macroeconomics, vol.32, issue.4, pp.1014-1024, 2010.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jmacro.2010.06.003
URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.688.1941

B. Hayo, A. Kutan, and M. Neuenkirch, The impact of U.S. central bank communication on European and pacific equity markets, Economics Letters, vol.108, issue.2, pp.172-174, 2010.
DOI : 10.1016/j.econlet.2010.05.006

B. Hayo and M. Neuenkirch, Do Federal Reserve Bank presidents pursue regional or national interests? New evidence based on speeches', MAGKS Joint Discussion Paper Series No, 2011.

B. Hayo and B. Vollan, Group interaction, heterogeneity, rules, and co-operative behaviour: Evidence from a common-pool resource experiment in South Africa and Namibia, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, vol.81, issue.1, pp.9-28, 2012.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jebo.2011.09.002

D. F. Hendry, Econometrics: Alchemy or Science, 2001.

D. Hibbs, Political parties and macroeconomic policy, American Political Science Review, vol.7, pp.1467-87, 1977.

D. Hoechle, Robust standard errors for panel regressions with cross sectional dependence, The Stata Journal, vol.7, issue.3, pp.281-312, 2007.

H. Huang and S. Wei, Monetary policies for developing countries: The role of institutional quality, Journal of International Economics, vol.70, issue.1, pp.239-252, 2006.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jinteco.2005.09.001

J. Ihrig and K. S. Moe, Lurking in the shadows: the informal sector and government policy, Journal of Development Economics, vol.73, issue.2, pp.541-557, 2004.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2003.04.004

O. Issing, The Eurosystem: Transparent andAccountable or 'Willem in Euroland', JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, vol.37, issue.3, pp.503-519, 1999.
DOI : 10.1111/1468-5965.00175

S. Johnson, D. Kaufman, and P. Zoido-lobaton, Regulatory discretion and the unofficial economy, American Economic Review, vol.88, issue.2, pp.387-392, 1998.

J. A. Kahn, Durable goods inventories and the Great Moderation', Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, 2008.

D. Kaufmann, A. Kraay, and M. Mastruzzi, Governance matters VIII: Governance indicators for 1996?, 2008.

D. Kaufman, A. Kraay, and M. Mastruzzi, The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, p.5430, 2010.
DOI : 10.1017/S1876404511200046

M. King, D. Aikman, P. Barret, S. Kapadia, J. Proudman et al., Uncertainty in macroeconomic policy making: Art or science?, BIS Review, issue.36, 2010.

A. T. Koreshkova, A quantitative analysis of inflation as a tax on the underground economy, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.53, issue.4, pp.773-96, 2006.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2005.02.009

F. E. Kydland and E. C. Prescott, Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans, Journal of Political Economy, vol.85, issue.3, pp.473-492, 1977.
DOI : 10.1086/260580

L. Porta, R. , and A. Shleifer, The Unofficial Economy and Economic Development, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, issue.2, pp.275-352, 2008.
DOI : 10.3386/w14520

J. Lange, B. Sack, and W. Whitesell, Anticipations of Monetary Policy in Financial Markets, SSRN Electronic Journal, vol.35, issue.6, pp.889-909, 2003.
DOI : 10.2139/ssrn.274168

D. Laskar, Central bank transparency and shocks, Economic Letters, pp.158-160, 2010.
DOI : 10.1016/j.econlet.2010.01.012
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00560261

E. E. Leemer, Let's take the con out of econometrics, The American Economic Review, vol.73, issue.1, pp.31-43, 1983.

E. Leeper and T. Zha, Modest policy interventions, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.50, issue.8, pp.1673-1700, 2003.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2003.01.002

S. Lohmann, The non-politics of monetary policy The Oxford Handbook of Political Economy, 2006.

T. Lubik and F. Schorfheide, Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy, American Economic Review, vol.94, issue.1, pp.190-217, 2004.
DOI : 10.1257/000282804322970760

N. G. Mankiw, The optimal collection of seigniorage: Theory and evidence', Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.20, issue.2, pp.327-341, 1987.
DOI : 10.3386/w2270

M. M. Mcconell and G. Perez-quiroz, Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed Since the Early 1980's?, American Economic Review, vol.90, issue.5, pp.1464-1476, 2000.
DOI : 10.1257/aer.90.5.1464

F. Mishkin, Will monetary policy become more of a science?, Monetary Policy Over Fifty Years: Experiences and Lessons, pp.81-107, 2009.

M. S. Morgan, The Cambridge History of Science, 2003.

A. Nakov and A. Pescatori, Oil and the Great Moderation, The Economic Journal, vol.97, issue.3, pp.131-156, 2010.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1468-0297.2009.02302.x
URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.192.5966

J. Nicolas, K. Dyson, and M. Marcussen, Transparency and accountability, Central Banks in the Age of Euro: Europeanization, Convergence, and Power, 2009.

J. P. Nicolini, Tax evasion and the optimal inflation tax, Journal of Development Economics, vol.55, issue.1, pp.215-232, 1998.
DOI : 10.1016/S0304-3878(97)00063-1

W. D. Nordhaus, The Political Business Cycle, The Review of Economic Studies, vol.42, issue.2, pp.169-90, 1975.
DOI : 10.2307/2296528

D. North, Economic performance through time, American Economic Review, vol.84, issue.3, pp.359-368, 1994.
DOI : 10.1017/cbo9781139174633.023

A. Orphanides, Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol.36, issue.2, pp.151-175, 2004.
DOI : 10.1353/mcb.2004.0013

A. Orphanides and J. C. Williams, The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol.29, issue.11, pp.1927-1950, 2005.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jedc.2005.06.004

M. Prado, Government policy in the formal and informal sectors, European Economic Review, vol.55, issue.8, pp.1120-1136, 2011.
DOI : 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2011.04.010

M. H. Pesaran, General diagnostic tests in cross section dependence in panels', Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 2004.

A. Pescatori, The Great Moderation: Good luck, good policy, or less oil dependence?', Economic Commentary Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 2008.

E. S. Phelps, Inflation in the Theory of Public Finance, The Swedish Journal of Economics, vol.75, issue.1, pp.67-82, 1973.
DOI : 10.2307/3439275

W. Poole and R. H. Rasche, The impact of change in FOMC disclosure practices on the transparency of monetary policy: Are markets and the FOMC better, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, vol.85, issue.1, pp.1-10, 2003.

G. E. Primiceri, Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy, Review of Economic Studies, vol.72, issue.3, pp.821-852, 2005.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1467-937X.2005.00353.x
URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.581.6592

C. Reinhart and K. Rogoff, The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.119, issue.1, pp.1-48, 2004.
DOI : 10.1162/003355304772839515

J. Rieskamp and U. Hoffrage, When do people use simple heuristics and how can we tell?, Simple Heuristics that Make Us Smart, pp.141-167, 1999.

K. Rogoff, The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.100, issue.4, pp.1169-1190, 1985.
DOI : 10.2307/1885679

K. Rogoff and A. Sibert, Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles, The Review of Economic Studies, vol.55, issue.1, pp.1-16, 1988.
DOI : 10.2307/2297526
URL : http://restud.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/55/1/1

D. Romer, Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.108, issue.4, pp.869-903, 1993.
DOI : 10.2307/2118453
URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.370.5929

C. Romer and D. Romer, Institutions for monetary stability, Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, 1997.
DOI : 10.3386/w5557

N. Roubini and X. Salai-i-martin, A growth model of inflation, tax evasion, and financial repression, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.35, issue.2, pp.275-301, 1995.
DOI : 10.1016/0304-3932(95)01192-Q

M. Rousakis, Expectations and fluctuations: The role of monetary policy, 2012.

J. Rülke and P. Tillmann, Do FOMC members herd?, Economics Letters, vol.113, issue.2, pp.176-179, 2011.
DOI : 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.07.016

F. Schneider and D. H. Enste, Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences, Journal of Economic Literature, vol.38, issue.1, pp.77-114, 2000.
DOI : 10.1257/jel.38.1.77

F. Schneider, Shadow economies around the world: what do we really know?, European Journal of Political Economy, vol.21, issue.3, pp.598-642, 2005.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2004.10.002

F. Schneider, Shadow Economies and Corruption all over the World: New Estimates for 145 Countries', Economics: The Open Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, vol.1, issue.2, pp.2007-2016, 2007.

F. Schneider, A. Buehn, and C. E. Montenegro, Shadow Economies All over the World: New Estimates for 162 Countries from 1999 to, 2007.

A. Sibert, Monetary Policy Committees: Individual and Collective Reputations, Review of Economic Studies, vol.70, issue.3, pp.649-655, 2003.
DOI : 10.1111/1467-937X.00260
URL : http://restud.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/short/70/3/649

P. L. Siklos, Institutional rules and the conduct of monetary policy: Does a central bank need governing principles?, Challenges in Central Banking, 2010.

P. L. Siklos, Central bank transparency: another look, Applied Economics Letters, vol.24, issue.10, pp.929-933, 2011.
DOI : 10.1017/CBO9780511606427

C. A. Sims and T. Zha, Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?, American Economic Review, vol.96, issue.1, pp.54-81, 2006.
DOI : 10.1257/000282806776157678

H. A. Simon, Models of Man., Economica, vol.24, issue.96, 1957.
DOI : 10.2307/2550441

A. B. Sorensen, Toward a Sounder Basis for Class Analysis, American Journal of Sociology, vol.105, issue.6, pp.1523-1558, 2000.
DOI : 10.1086/210463

D. Staiger and J. H. Stock, Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments, Econometrica, vol.65, pp.557-586, 1997.
DOI : 10.3386/t0151

J. E. Stiglitz, Free Fall, 2010.

J. E. Stiglitz, RETHINKING MACROECONOMICS: WHAT FAILED, AND HOW TO REPAIR IT, Journal of the European Economic Association, vol.9, issue.4, pp.591-565, 2011.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1542-4774.2011.01030.x
URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.429.1752

J. H. Stock and M. Yogo, Testing for weak instruments in linear IV regression Identification and Inference for Econometric Models, 2005.

J. H. Stock and M. W. Watson, Has the business cycle changed? Evidence and explanations', Paper presented at the conference at Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City symposium Monetary policy and uncertainty, 2003.

J. H. Stock and M. W. Watson, Understanding changes in international business cycle dynamics, 2003.
DOI : 10.1162/1542476054729446
URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.15.1169

R. L. Stroup, Political Behavior The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics, Library of Economics and Liberty, 2008.

E. T. Swanson, Federal Reserve Transparency and Financial Market Forecasts of Short-Term Interest Rates, SSRN Electronic Journal, vol.38, issue.3, pp.791-819, 2006.
DOI : 10.2139/ssrn.515862

P. Tillmann, Strategic forecasting on the FOMC, European Journal of Political Economy, vol.27, issue.3, pp.547-553, 2011.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2011.01.006

B. Torgler and F. Schneider, The impact of tax morale and institutional quality on the shadow economy, Journal of Economic Psychology, vol.30, issue.2, pp.228-245, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/j.joep.2008.08.004

D. J. Treiman, Occupational Prestige in Comparative Perspective, 1977.

C. A. Van-der-cruijsen and S. C. Eijjffinger, From actual to perceived transparency: The case of the European Central Bank, Journal of Economic Psychology, vol.31, issue.3, pp.388-399, 2008.
DOI : 10.1016/j.joep.2010.01.007

C. A. Végh, Government Spending and Inflationary Finance: A Public Finance Approach, Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund, vol.36, issue.3, pp.657-677, 1989.
DOI : 10.2307/3867051

C. E. Walsh, Optimal contracts for central bankers, American Economic Review, vol.85, issue.1, pp.150-167, 1995.

M. Woodford, INTEREST AND PRICES: FOUNDATIONS OF A THEORY OF MONETARY POLICY, Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol.9, issue.03, 2003.
DOI : 10.1017/S1365100505040253

A. Zellner, Bayesian and Non-Bayesian approaches to scientific modeling and inference in economics and econometrics', Korean Journal of Money and Finance, Special Issue, pp.11-56, 2000.