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Simulations d’épizooties de fièvre aphteuse et aide à la décision : approches épidémiologique et économique

Abstract : The 2001 Foot-and-mouth disease epizootic in the United Kingdom has illustrated limits in some established surveillance, control, anticipation and decision-making systems. At the same time, the relaxation of vaccination procedures has enhanced the set of usable tools by risk managers. A reassessment in France seemed needed.For this purpose, the research project firstly proposed to study the organization of the different livestock industries in France. The analysis of French holding network by using the method of social network analysis has led to characterize the relationships between holdings and to determine a constant structural vulnerability to diseases spread especially due to bovine trade network.Secondly, the disease spread in the holding network has been studied with simulations generated by a specifically built model. The cost-effectiveness of different control strategies (combining infected herd depopulation, pre-emptive culling and vaccination) were then compared. Results showed that no single epidemiological and economical optimal strategy existed and local context must be taken into account. Indeed, the cost-effective strategy changed according to the concerned area and the considered players.This research work allowed creating a thinking tool for decision-making but also a training tool for crisis management preparation.
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Submitted on : Monday, June 18, 2012 - 4:52:26 PM
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Séverine Rautureau. Simulations d’épizooties de fièvre aphteuse et aide à la décision : approches épidémiologique et économique. Santé publique et épidémiologie. Université Paris Sud - Paris XI, 2012. Français. ⟨NNT : 2012PA11T002⟩. ⟨tel-00709417⟩

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