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Dollarisation partielle et dollarisation intégrale: l'expérience de l'Equateur

Abstract : This PhD thesis examines the dollarization process in Ecuador, i.e. the competition of the national money - the sucre - with the US dollar, distinguishing the partial dollarization (1982-2000) and the full dollarization (2000-2004). Partial dollarization allowed agents to preserve the real value of his monetary assets (parts I and II), but at the same time, involved macroeconomics costs. The effects of these costs rendered Ecuador in a progressively uncontrollable financial crisis at the end of the 1990s (part III) and resulted in the adoption of a full dollarization system (part IV). In chapter 1, after having given a basic definition of partial dollarization, we characterize its specific attributes in this country (magnitude, forms, motives). In chapter 2, we specify the institutional factors of partial dollarization by displaying the importance of financial liberalization of 1992. In the second portion, we lead an econometric analysis of the determinants of partial dollarization through a money demand estimation (chapter 3) then a ratio estimation of partial dollarization (chapter 4). Chapters 5 and 6, of the third part, examine the consequences of partial dollarization, more specifically in regards to the balance sheet effect. We show that the partial dollarization is the origin of an endogenous dynamic in the financial crisis (the twin crises) at the end of the 1990s, leading to a renewed interpretation of the Mundell s impossible trinity. The financial crisis ended in January 2000, with the adoption of the full dollarization system of which the study is the focus of the forth portion. Chapter 7 examines the benefits of full dollarization, specifically regarding the reduction of inflation. Lastly, in chapter 8, we analyse the costs of this system through the study of the degree of symmetry of the shocks between Ecuador and the United States.
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Submitted on : Wednesday, January 25, 2012 - 1:49:26 PM
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  • HAL Id : tel-00662869, version 1

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Axel Gastambide. Dollarisation partielle et dollarisation intégrale: l'expérience de l'Equateur. Economies et finances. Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I, 2005. Français. ⟨NNT : 2005CLF10285⟩. ⟨tel-00662869⟩

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