Changement climatique dans le vignoble de Champagne : Modélisation thermique à plusieurs échelles spatio-temporelles (1950-2100)

Abstract : Global climatic change has already consequences on viticulture worldwide and these modifications imply some questions about future. Evaluation of possible modifications in Champagne vineyard is necessary in terms of thermal extremes for vineyard as spring frost during budbreak and heat-waves. Indeed temperature influences phenological cycle and earlier phenological stages have already been observed. This vineyard is particularly interesting to study because of its northern location and thanks to a large network of weather stations since 20 years. To establish a prospective of thermal possible conditions, data of French climate models LMD and ARPEGE-Climate model, respectively at 300 km and 50 km of resolution, are validated and analyzed on a control period (1950 to 2000). They are also used to give an overview of bioclimatic and thermal future conditions (2001 to 2100) with three scenarios, currently used (A1B, B1 and A2). The control period shows cold biases within statistical distributions of climate models data in spring and summer, in terms of extremes frequencies estimation and better results with ARPEGE climate model. Data of this model are used to assess thermal and bioclimatic futures conditions. Summer extremes could increase in the future while cold spring extremes could decrease during budbreak. Budbreak could be earlier and spring cold extremes in March could cause more severe frost of buds. Regional analysis is completed by a local analysis with RAMS meso-scale model, which downscales simulations at a resolution of 200 m, taking into account local factors. The validation modeling is proceeded during the 2003 extreme climatic events (late spring frost and summer heat wave), this year is considered as exceptional and representative of the "future climate" which caused buds frost and berries warming. Simulated temperatures (200 m) for the Champagne vineyard were compared to recorded temperatures by weather stations located within the vineyards. The model reproduced the diurnal cycle of temperatures correctly with biases more or less marked depending dates.
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Geography. Université Paris-Diderot - Paris VII, 2011. French


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Submitted on : Thursday, January 5, 2012 - 11:32:47 AM
Last modification on : Thursday, January 5, 2012 - 11:36:48 AM

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Elodie Briche. Changement climatique dans le vignoble de Champagne : Modélisation thermique à plusieurs échelles spatio-temporelles (1950-2100). Geography. Université Paris-Diderot - Paris VII, 2011. French. <tel-00653635v2>

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