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Evolution vers un système hydrométéorologique intégré pour la prévision des crues de l'Isère à Moûtiers : prise en compte des aménagements hydroélectrique

Abstract : The flood forecasting of the Isere River upstream Grenoble is a major concern of the SPC NA wanting to change its system to an integrated hydrometeorological forecasting to extend the time of anticipation. This basin whose surface is about several thousand kilometers square and with a snowmelt dominated regime, integrate an important hydro-electric device modifying the flows natural regime. The Moûtiers Isere River subbasin, with a surface close thousands of square kilometers and the typic characteristics of the entire basin, is a ideal test zone that will appropriately apprehend the hydrological modeling of Grenoble Isere River basin. In the framework of ALCOTRA -RiskNat project RS2 Model developed at the LCH-EPFL (Dubois et al., 2000) and adapted to the Alpine context is a good compromise between an approach that integrates the large specificity of the study area and flexibility of implementation, which operationally is a considerable asset. The complexity of this hydraulic network implied a two steps modeling : model calibration in natural conditions then integration of the hydro-electric device. From the representation of hydropower plants in the model, four spatial discretizations of the basin more or less detailed, have been devised and tested in the first place. This was used to analyze the impact of four different representations of meteorological forcing on the simulated water balance terms. This mountain context makes it particularly difficult estimating the precipitation forcing. The impact of three precipitation fields tested as input to the model on simulations of flow has proved far greater than that associated with the discretization of the meteorological forcing. The model that best represent the meteorology of the basin has been preserved in order to represent the hydropower plant for a second time. A simple method to consider may be sufficient, and an equivalence relation for the representation of water intake helps to promote flexibility of the model. However, over time, this tool must allow the SPC forecasting to be based on an estimate fairer and more accurate flood flow, which requires integrating a finer time step, the hourly time step, suitable basin response time. The implementation of this hourly forecasting is more complex and requires a more detailed process of hydro-meteorological and hydraulics. For estimating the new precipitation forcing, a method of temporal disaggregation was used. Encouraging initial results of hourly modeling are presented.
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https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00638427
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Submitted on : Tuesday, November 15, 2011 - 4:40:04 PM
Last modification on : Thursday, November 19, 2020 - 3:54:29 PM
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Aurélien Claude. Evolution vers un système hydrométéorologique intégré pour la prévision des crues de l'Isère à Moûtiers : prise en compte des aménagements hydroélectrique. Sciences de la Terre. Université de Grenoble, 2011. Français. ⟨NNT : 2011GRENU031⟩. ⟨tel-00638427⟩

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