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Analyse et modélisation spatiales à long terme du transport national de marchandises

Abstract : The growth of goods transport and the imbalances in its spatial distribution lead to consider the long-run evolution of freight and its repercussions in regional planning. A spatial model of long-run simulation of goods transport is developed to understand and clarify the mechanisms of evolution and the spatial organization of freight. The spatial analysis and modelling are based on the distinction of an economic dimension of freight, which depends on the industrial activity, and a structural dimension, which is related to the spatial and socio-economic structuring of the national territory. This second dimension is evaluated using structural coefficients which compare real flows with potential flows, these ones being assessed in a theoretical situation of independence between areas. The model presents the explanatory factors and main trends which determine the formation and the long-run evolution of intraregional and interregional freight and the spatial distribution of interregional flows. For the economic dimension, the model highlights a variable reactivity of freight to the industrial growth, equaly differentiated with respect to the nature of good shipped and the geographical scale of transport. For the structural dimension, the spatial structure of goods transport is related to transport cost and interregional proximity and exhibits a strong temporal stability. The scenarios of simulation present possible futures of volumes and spatial distribution of freight, according to contrasted assumptions of industrial growth and regional planning, between an increased agglomeration of freight on the Paris basin and the North-South major road on the one hand and a larger spatial dispersion on the other hand.
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https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00589032
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Submitted on : Wednesday, April 27, 2011 - 11:41:20 AM
Last modification on : Friday, October 23, 2020 - 4:34:21 PM
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  • HAL Id : tel-00589032, version 1

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Sandrine Durand. Analyse et modélisation spatiales à long terme du transport national de marchandises. Economies et finances. Université Lumière - Lyon II, 2001. Français. ⟨tel-00589032⟩

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