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L'Europe face aux déséquilibres mondiaux : une analyse historique, théorique et empirique

Abstract : In the 2000s, the United States received a record saving transfer. This thesis studies the consequences of global imbalances for Europe. Firstly, we highlight a British cycle of global imbalances (1815-1944) during which Europeans benefited from saving transfers and an American cycle (since 1944) during which they did not really take part of it. We built up a theoretical model to show that the British cycle is based on a “current account – foreign investments – investment income” loop which allows the European Center to consume more than it produced while keeping rising its foreign assets and investment incomes. During the American cycle our model points out that the accumulation of global imbalances is due to Asian's, OPEC's and American's growth strategies and implies for Europe: (i) a slowdown of the growth ; (ii) an appreciation of the euro ; (iii) a weak impact on the current account balance. We use structural VAR model to confirm these three results for the euro area. Finally, we show with our theoretical model that if Europe had adopted a domestic demand-led strategy, the negative impact of global imbalances could have been avoided. The estimation of a long run relation between current account balance and budget deficit reveals that fiscal policy could have been an efficient way to deal with negative effects, especially for the small countries of the euro area.
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Contributor : Jean-Baptiste Gossé <>
Submitted on : Tuesday, December 7, 2010 - 3:19:48 PM
Last modification on : Saturday, February 15, 2020 - 1:54:30 AM
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  • HAL Id : tel-00544238, version 1


Jean-Baptiste Gossé. L'Europe face aux déséquilibres mondiaux : une analyse historique, théorique et empirique. Economies et finances. Université Paris-Nord - Paris XIII, 2010. Français. ⟨tel-00544238⟩



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