Environnement & Mobilité 2050 : des scénarios sous contrainte du facteur 4 (-75% de CO2 en 2050)

Abstract : In France an objective of dividing greenhouse gas emissions by four, from the 1990 level, by 2050 has been set. Are these ambitions out of our reach? What will the price to pay for this objective be? We have built a long-term backcasting transport demand model (TILT, Transport Issues in the Long Term). This model is centered on defined behavior types -in which the speed-GDP elasticity plays a key role- in order to determine demand estimations. This model lets us understand past tendencies -the coupling between growth and personal and freight mobility and adapt behavioral hypothesis -linked to the evolution of public policies- in order to show how a 75% reduction objective can be attained. The main results are an estimation of CO2 emissions for the transport sector taking into account technical progress and demand. These results are presented as three scenario families named: Pegasus, Chronos and Hestia. Each family corresponds to a growing degree of constraint on mobility. It is possible to divide greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector by four. Technical progress is able to lead to more than half of these reductions. The interest of these scenarios is to show that there exist different paths –through organizational change- to getting the other half of the reductions.
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https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00523839
Contributor : Hector G. Lopez-Ruiz <>
Submitted on : Wednesday, October 6, 2010 - 2:35:07 PM
Last modification on : Tuesday, November 20, 2018 - 1:19:45 AM
Long-term archiving on : Friday, January 7, 2011 - 2:41:13 AM

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Hector G. Lopez-Ruiz. Environnement & Mobilité 2050 : des scénarios sous contrainte du facteur 4 (-75% de CO2 en 2050). Economies et finances. Université Lumière - Lyon II, 2009. Français. ⟨tel-00523839⟩

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