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Bayesian approach of pollen-based palaeoclimate reconstructions: Toward the modelling of ecological processes

Abstract : Pollen preserved in lacustrine sediments form a crucial archive for reconstructing past climate and terrestrial vegetation change. Currently, climate reconstructions are based on statistical models describing the link between climate and pollen. These models raise methodological problems because they are all based on the hypothesis that climate-pollen relationships are constant over times; implying that non-climatic parameters driving the relation have weak influence. This is not in agreement with recent developments in ecology and ecophysiology. That is why, in this work, we develop an approach integrating a dynamical vegetation model and major processes linking vegetation and pollen trapped in lakes. The Bayesian framework provides us with a theoretical basis and tools for the inference of model parameters and past climate. We use these new models for reconstructing Holocene climate in various European sites. This approach, which may allow spatio-temporal reconstructions still requires developments around statistical inference for semi-mechanistic models.
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https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00495890
Contributor : Vincent Garreta <>
Submitted on : Tuesday, June 29, 2010 - 11:01:14 AM
Last modification on : Friday, October 23, 2020 - 4:46:49 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Thursday, September 30, 2010 - 6:08:52 PM

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  • HAL Id : tel-00495890, version 1

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Vincent Garreta. Bayesian approach of pollen-based palaeoclimate reconstructions: Toward the modelling of ecological processes. Climatology. Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III, 2010. English. ⟨tel-00495890⟩

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