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Globalisation financière et fragilités économiques et bancaires : une modélisation d'un système d'indicateurs d'alerte pour l'économie turque

Abstract : The global financial instability context of the 1990s and 2000s which is characterized by the consecutive systemic and contagious crisis episodes that led to important economic and financial costs for the crisis country and also for the entire international financial system via contagion effects stimulated a large discussion on the prevention of the future crises. The early warning systems that aim to detect the vulnerabilities of an economy in order to inform the monetary authorities of the probability of a crisis so that they take some preventive measures may then be considered as the hearth of the researches concerning the crisis prevention mechanisms. This study which is constructed on the lessons of the theoretical and empirical crisis literature aims to build an early warning system in order identify the main determinants of the Turkish crises occurred in April 1994, February 2001, Mai 2006 and October 2008. According to the estimation results of the econometric model, this study also implements some policy implications to prevent future crises and to reach a sustainable economic development in Turkey.
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Submitted on : Wednesday, May 26, 2010 - 8:55:23 AM
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Ali Ari. Globalisation financière et fragilités économiques et bancaires : une modélisation d'un système d'indicateurs d'alerte pour l'économie turque. Economies et finances. Université du Sud Toulon Var, 2009. Français. ⟨tel-00486629⟩

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