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Améliorations et développements d'une méthode de prévision probabiliste des pluies par analogie. Application à la prévision hydrologique sur les grands bassins fluviaux de la Saône et de la Seine.

Abstract : This thesis aims at improving a probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting method based on analogs, formerly developed on small basins located in South-Eastern France (Bontron, 2004). The study area covers two French large basins of the Saône and the Seine. For a given target situation, this method consists in searching for the most similar situations observed in a historical meteorological archive. Precipitation amounts observed during analogous situations are then collected to derive the empirical predictive distribution function, i.e. the probabilistic estimation of the precipitation amount expected for the target day. A preliminary step is to build the databases necessary to apply such a method. The former forecasting method (Bontron, 2004) is improved by introducing two variables: temperature allows to take seasonal effects into account and vertical velocity enables a better characterization of the vertical atmospheric motion. The new algorithm is then applied in a perfect prognosis context (target situations come from a meteorological reanalysis) and then in an operational forecasting context (target situations come from weather forecasts) for a three years period. Precipitation scenarios are finally introduced in the rainfall-runoff model GR3P to provide discharge forecasts. Results for the two basins under study show that this approach yields useful forecasts up to one week ahead.
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https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00483080
Contributor : Aurélien Ben Daoud <>
Submitted on : Wednesday, May 12, 2010 - 3:04:01 PM
Last modification on : Monday, May 18, 2020 - 2:36:27 PM
Long-term archiving on: : Thursday, December 1, 2016 - 4:13:05 AM

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Aurélien Ben Daoud. Améliorations et développements d'une méthode de prévision probabiliste des pluies par analogie. Application à la prévision hydrologique sur les grands bassins fluviaux de la Saône et de la Seine.. Hydrologie. Université de Grenoble, 2010. Français. ⟨tel-00483080⟩

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