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Amélioration des prévisions d'ensemble des débits sur la France de SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU

Abstract : The aim of this thesis was to improve the performances of the hydrological ensemble predictions of the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM) suite of Météo-France. First, the short-range ensemble prediction of ARPEGE (PEARP) was used (instead of the 10-day ECMWF EPS). A comparative statistical study of both meteorological forcings and streamflow predictions, was performed. Then, the initial states of the ensemble streamflow predictions were improved by a streamflow assimilation system in the SIM-analysis suite. The goal was to improve the streamflow simulations by modifying the soil moisture with the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). Several configurations were tested and showed a significant improvement of streamflow simulations. Finally, the impact of the assimilation system on the two ensemble steamflow prediction systems was quantified. The improvement was significant, even at a medium time-range.
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Submitted on : Monday, March 1, 2010 - 7:13:45 PM
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  • HAL Id : tel-00460645, version 1



Guillaume Thirel. Amélioration des prévisions d'ensemble des débits sur la France de SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU. Hydrologie. Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse III, 2009. Français. ⟨tel-00460645⟩



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