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Theses

Étude climatique de la mousson vietnamienne et applications à la prévision saisonnière

Abstract : This thesis aims at documenting the physical and dynamic processes associated with the monsoon circulation of Vietnamese regional and synoptic scales, to explore the predictability of its key components and develop statistical and dynamical methods for forecasting the monsoon onset and seasonal. It is divided into two parts. The first part is, in fact, a climate study based on analysis of diagnostic data: - first, the monthly rainfall and temperature data station over the period 1960-2000 are used to analyze the cycle and the variability of these fields on the seven traditional climatic regions of Vietnam using the observed precipitation in various stations. Classifications and correlations are applied on rainfall data to identify sub-regions on which selected indices will be calculated to analyze time evolution and identify the best predictors for the second part; - then, the atmospheric reanalysis of NCEP/DOE2 and estimates of CMAP rainfall over the period 1979-2004 (2.5 ° x 2.5°) are used to describe the basic processes, the averaged annual cycle and the variability of the monsoon in the range of synoptic to interannual time scales. The second part is a study of predictability of the monsson onset and of the seasonal rainfall: - data in situ rain and wind at 1 000 hPa are used to define the onset of rains over southern and northern Vietnam. The onset dates are provided, based on regional indices using the NCEP/DOE2 dataset; - the predictability of cumulative seasonal rainfall is then defined by the dual use of coupled models of the European program (ENSEMBLES) and statistical forecasting. Key words : Vietnamese monsoon, monsoon onset, rainfall, Vietnam, seasonal forecasting.
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Xuan Thanh Pham. Étude climatique de la mousson vietnamienne et applications à la prévision saisonnière. Climatologie. Université de Bourgogne, 2008. Français. ⟨tel-00454191⟩

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