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Apport de la modélisation individu-centrée spatialement explicite à la compréhension de L'expression d'une maladie transmissible : la peste bubonique à Madagascar

Abstract : Plague is a disease which has never disappeared and reemerges in some countries, including Madagascar. Research devoted to its bubonic form has primarily focused on the host and vector agents' identification –rodents and fleas– which are involved in the epidemiological cycle, their dependence on environmental risk factors, and the transmission process of the bacillus. These factors and mechanisms operating at the individual level are now better known thanks to the achievements of observational and experimental studies. A current research issue concerns the analysis of the complex endemo-epidemic processes of plague expression in the host and vector populations. To this end, traditional mathematical compartmental models fail to take into account the potentially decisive effect of the localized and contingent aspect of the transmission process. For bubonic plague, this aspect is related to the heterogeneous and changing distribution of fleas and rodents. Therefore, it is important to consider individual heterogeneity and the geographical context in which the disease develops to clarify the epidemiological risk at a local level and prevent human cases. The purpose of our research is to demonstrate the heuristic value of the individual-based modeling approach, encompassed in the paradigm of complexity, which integrates knowledge at the individual level and is based on a multi-agent computing formalism, to investigate the endemo-epidemic processes of bubonic plague at the local level. The model, applied to the Malagasy focus, lead us to assess the effect of the initial population size and spatial distribution of rats and fleas on the infection dynamics.
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https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00445563
Contributor : Vincent Laperrière <>
Submitted on : Saturday, January 9, 2010 - 12:20:07 PM
Last modification on : Friday, January 15, 2021 - 9:21:12 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Thursday, June 17, 2010 - 10:33:52 PM

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  • HAL Id : tel-00445563, version 1

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Vincent Laperrière. Apport de la modélisation individu-centrée spatialement explicite à la compréhension de L'expression d'une maladie transmissible : la peste bubonique à Madagascar. Géographie. Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, 2009. Français. ⟨tel-00445563⟩

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