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Annulations de la dette extérieure et croissance. Une application au cas des "pays pauvres très endettés" (PPTE)

Abstract : The objective of this dissertation is to evaluate the effect on growth of reductions in external debt granted through the HIPCs Initiative. After recalling, in the first chapter, the specificities of the external debt in HIPCs, we present the characteristics of the HIPC Initiative, in the second chapter. It aims to restore debt sustainability and to encourage the fight against poverty. The growth target is not expressed explicitly. The third chapter establishes a link between sustainability and growth through the debt overhang model. It highlights the negative impact of external debt overhang on investment. However, two limitations appear. The first one deals with the assumptions of the theoretical model. The second is related to the method of empirical estimation. The fourth chapter addresses one of the limitations. We show the importance of intertemporal preferences in the debt-investment relationship in a context of limited access to capital markets. Debt depresses investment in presence of a low preference for smoothing of the debtor. Strong in the case of HIPCs, it calls into question the approach of debt overhang. To make sure, we develop in the next two chapters, a study focusing on HIPCs. This confirms the absence of debt overhang since the stock of debt does not affect investment or growth. On the contrary, debt service tends to have a positive effect which corroborates the findings of the fourth chapter. To complete this study, an evaluation of the first results of reducing debt is presented in the seventh chapter. A slightly higher growth is observed but does not seem to be the consequence of higher investment but rather to better governance.
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Contributor : Khadija Idlemouden <>
Submitted on : Friday, September 25, 2009 - 6:24:58 PM
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  • HAL Id : tel-00419972, version 1



Khadija Idlemouden. Annulations de la dette extérieure et croissance. Une application au cas des "pays pauvres très endettés" (PPTE). Economies et finances. Université Paris Dauphine - Paris IX, 2009. Français. ⟨tel-00419972⟩



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