Impacts du changement climatique sur le potentiel éolien en France: une étude de régionalisation

Abstract : In this thesis, we study the impact of climate change on surface winds in France, and draw conclusions concerning wind energy ressources. Because of their coarse spatial resolution, climate models cannot properly reproduce the spatial variability of the surface winds. Thus, two downscaling methods are developed in order to regionalize an ensemble of climate scenarios: a statistical method based on weather typing and a statistico-dynamical method that resorts to high resolution mesoscale modelling. By 2050, significant but relatively small changes are depicted with, in particular, a decrease of the wind speed in the south and an increase in the north. The use of other dowscaling methods enables to study several uncertainty sources: it appears that most of the uncertainty is due to the climate models.
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Sciences of the Universe [physics]. Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse III, 2008. French


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Submitted on : Monday, March 2, 2009 - 12:00:32 PM
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Julien Najac. Impacts du changement climatique sur le potentiel éolien en France: une étude de régionalisation. Sciences of the Universe [physics]. Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse III, 2008. French. <tel-00365068>

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