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Evaluation de la sûreté de fonctionnement des réseaux de distribution par la simulation Monte Carlo : application à des stratégies de maintenance optimales

Abstract : Today, the electricity sector is confronted with new challenges imposed by the deregulation of the electricity market, the international desire to reduce the greenhouse gases emissions, the development of new technologies. There is an increasing need to assess the reliability of the distribution systems. We can see a migration of methods specially used at transmission level to the distribution level. In a previous PhD, a method based on a sequential Monte Carlo simulation has been developed. The first part of this thesis deals with the study of acceleration methods. Two methods were tested, Antithetic Variates and Stratification. The best acceleration was achieved by a combination of these two methods. Then, we discussed the feasibility study of an optimization method based on reliability criteria. The chosen application was the preventive maintenance strategies optimization. We looked for the optimal number of preventive maintenance and the maximum value of failure rate when maintenance is carried out, minimising the total cost (cost of preventive maintenance, corrective maintenance and the cost of interruptions). In the end, a series of reflections related to the future development of a reliability analysis tool were presented. A modular structure of the tool is proposed to facilitate its use, and the possibility of parallel calculations for a better efficiency.
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Submitted on : Monday, November 17, 2008 - 2:09:13 PM
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Andreea Bianca Ocnasu. Evaluation de la sûreté de fonctionnement des réseaux de distribution par la simulation Monte Carlo : application à des stratégies de maintenance optimales. Sciences de l'ingénieur [physics]. Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble - INPG, 2008. Français. ⟨tel-00339260⟩

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